F1 Fanatic

Hamilton and Raikkonen have faster cars than Vettel. I think they’ll finish second and third respectively but no one will catch Alonso. Button will also be ahead of Webber.

Every year he does a god job and is ahead of Vettel halfway through the year, then he signs a new contract for the next year and he is suddenly nowhere near as competitive as he previously was.

I think the championship is Ferrari’s and Alonso’s to lose, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be lost. One win and from Vettel and one retirement from Alonso and suddenly Sebastian is the favourite to win.

Hamilton is a little far back at the moment and McLaren have to bring consistency to the final races which so far they have lacked this season, but it’s far from over yet. I don’t think either McLaren or Hamilton will be distracted by his move to Mercedes. McLaren’s engineers may no longer share the deepest secrets of the MP4-28 with Hamilton, but that shouldn’t stop Lewis from driving this year’s car as fast as possible. The only person in McLaren that doesn’t want to see Hamilton win, I suspect, is Jenson Button. Button will probably have given up on the 2012 championship, but he is less than a race win away from Hamilton in the standings. I think Jenson will be more concerned about taking points off his teammate in the coming races than off Hamilton’s championship rivals.

Raikkonen: the Lotus has lacked speed the last couple of races, and Raikkonen has not impressed me as much as he seemed to have impressed others. Just how badly does Kimi want this title? As badly as the other contestants? I don’t think so.

As much as I like Webber, I don’t see him as a candidate for the title anymore. He can still play a role in the fight, though, by taking points of the other candidates in the remaining races. He needs to up his game and Suzuka is a circuit that should suit him, so Sunday would be a good time to start finishing ahead of Fernando again.

Vettel actually was ahead after rounds 8 and 9 in 2009.

But regardless, the championships are handed out at the end of the year. Being ahead by a couple of points at half way, if you’re going to be so poor in the rest of the year is useless. That’s why I do not consider Mark to be a serious title contender. He went out of his way to throw away the 2010 title, and in a lesser position, he’s replicating those performances.

The Mclaren is the fastest, so Lewis isn’t out of it yet, nor is Vettel, but I don’t see anyone stopping Alonso. He is arguably overdue a third title.

I think a better way to explain duncanmonza’s theory and prove it right to compare Vettel and Webber after the Hungarian GP. Webber was leading Vettel by 4.5 points in 2009, by 10 points in 2010 and 2 points this season. Then, on each occasion, he completely falls back in the second half of the season.

Disclaimer: I still believe Vettel is a better driver than Webber.

That being said, I predict Alonso to be champion this season, ahead of Vettel, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Button and Webber respectively.

@duncanmonza Re Webber, I think it’s more that his specialty circuits (those where he generally becomes a top driver) are all early in the year. Sepang, Barcelona, Monaco, Silverstone, Nurburgring (every other year). From there on, there aren’t really any circuits he’s good at – just average at best, except Interlagos.

I personally think that, while Lewis has the quicker car than Vettel or Alonso – the points difference in relation to the pace gap is too big. I think that Vettel or Alonso are the only two realistic prospects for the title at this point, though I’d definitely call Lewis a probable longshot. I don’t believe anyone else is possible.

I actually don’t think Alonso has this title sown up by any stretch of the mind. Alonso’s car, since Hockenheim, has yet to ever feature in the top 2, let alone a victory. Other than Monza, which is always a one-off in terms of pecking order, the Ferrari has yet to be a top 2 fastest car of any given weekend, or sometimes even top 3.