F1 Fanatic

This season, following HRT’s departure, there will be six drivers elliminated after Q1. It would appear as though Caterham and Marussia have not yet joined the mid field, so on most w/ends, we can assume they will not make the cut.
But who will join them on a regular basis?

People say Williams have moved to the top of the middle class, the Force India and Sauber cars are possibly tied, and have Toro Rosso improved?
Williams and Sauber each have a rookie, is that a factor? Are either of the Toro Rosso drivers good enough to take the step up into Mark’s seat?

It could even be one of the top drivers. If the teams still have problems with the tires (at least in the opening races), then 1 little mistake that ruins a lap could be very costly, since they maybe not get decent enough performance for another lap.

So let’s see which driver can hold his nerve and go all-out on the single qualy lap he has.

I would put my money on Vergne and Guttierez being the regular Q1 exits.

Also think a few other drivers will be visiting that club though – Daniel, Adrian, Paul, Valleteri and Felipe

Massa has always beeen poor around Albert Park, nevertheless, the Ferrari will have more than enough performance advantage for Felipe not to worry about Q1 as far as I can predict.

Looks like everyone pretty much agrees on Vergne and Gutierrez, and I think I have to follow that trend. Vergne hasn’t really showed that he is a good qualifier yet, and Gutierrez is an unknown quantity, which many people don’t seem to think is very good. Unless the Sauber is at the front of the midfield, then Esteban could bite the bullet in the first session.

I’d have to say:
17. Gutierrez
18. Vergne
19. Bianchi
20. Pic
21. Chilton
22. Van der Garde

In a recent interview, Vergne said his qualifying woes were at least partly explained by two things: 1. getting the tyres up to temperature/to work (which should be easier on this year’s tyres), and 2. Setting the car up with understeer, because in the races the cars are rear-tyre limited, so an understeering car in qualifying will give you a better race car. I don’t know how that will be in 2013. Bottom line: in 2013 JEV need not be a bad qualifier.

I think the really interesting part about Q1 will be: which top drivers will dare not to run the option tyre, and who will make a mistake on their first flying lap, because, as @me4me pointed out, it looks like you only get a single decent lap out of 2013 Pirellis.

On pure pace, I suspect Toro Rosso will be the slowest midfield cars for the start of the season, as they have focussed on improving mechanical grip first, I think, with aerodynamic improvement coming later in the season. Of course, Melbourne is not massively aero-reliant, so they may escape Q1 there anyway.

Unless we get a repeat of Malaysia 2010 it will be the usual suspects plus Gutierrez and I have a feeling Sutil will also be knocked out.

Vergne and Gutierrez.