Who will fail to make Q2?
6th March 2013, 6:53 at 6:53 am #132711
This season, following HRT’s departure, there will be six drivers elliminated after Q1. It would appear as though Caterham and Marussia have not yet joined the mid field, so on most w/ends, we can assume they will not make the cut.
But who will join them on a regular basis?
People say Williams have moved to the top of the middle class, the Force India and Sauber cars are possibly tied, and have Toro Rosso improved?
Williams and Sauber each have a rookie, is that a factor? Are either of the Toro Rosso drivers good enough to take the step up into Mark’s seat?6th March 2013, 7:03 at 7:03 am #225319
The six drivers who will drop out in Q1, will be the obvious suspects, Caterham and Marrusia; and Esteban Gutierrez & Jean-Eric Vergne.
My two cents.6th March 2013, 7:38 at 7:38 am #225320
It could even be one of the top drivers. If the teams still have problems with the tires (at least in the opening races), then 1 little mistake that ruins a lap could be very costly, since they maybe not get decent enough performance for another lap.
So let’s see which driver can hold his nerve and go all-out on the single qualy lap he has.6th March 2013, 7:39 at 7:39 am #225321
The Caterhams and the Marussias will regularly be knocked out. As for the other two, I think it will be impossible to predict – every other team appears to have a car that is capable of qualifying in Q2 at the very least, so I suspect we’ll be in for some really tight fights at the end of Q1.6th March 2013, 8:24 at 8:24 am #225322
I would put my money on Vergne and Guttierez being the regular Q1 exits.
Also think a few other drivers will be visiting that club though – Daniel, Adrian, Paul, Valleteri and Felipe6th March 2013, 9:22 at 9:22 am #225323
In the first three or four races I think we’ll have at least one or two top drivers taking the Q1 bullet. And I’m thinking Webber or Button, maybe, if the tyres start acting all paranoid again, as last year.
Otherwise, except for the eternal backmarkers, I can’t think of anyone exiting on a regular basis other than JEV – who has already proven he’s pretty much a horrible qualifier – and Gutierrez. And if Torro Rosso actually manage to improve “Sauber 2012” style I expect Force India to be the ones pushed over the edge. But that’s a big “if” there.
As for Massa and Bottas, I really don’t think Massa will repeat last year’s counter-performance while Bottas looks to have what it takes to place that Williams at least somewhere between 10th and 15th place, on a regular basis, provided the FW35 isn’t THAT good.6th March 2013, 14:31 at 2:31 pm #225324
Massa has always beeen poor around Albert Park, nevertheless, the Ferrari will have more than enough performance advantage for Felipe not to worry about Q1 as far as I can predict.6th March 2013, 21:20 at 9:20 pm #225325
I’d say, if there are no surprises:
22. Van der Garde
But if there was a surprise, I predict that due to a car failure the following will happen:
…which would promote Vergne into Q2.6th March 2013, 21:35 at 9:35 pm #225326
Looks like everyone pretty much agrees on Vergne and Gutierrez, and I think I have to follow that trend. Vergne hasn’t really showed that he is a good qualifier yet, and Gutierrez is an unknown quantity, which many people don’t seem to think is very good. Unless the Sauber is at the front of the midfield, then Esteban could bite the bullet in the first session.
I’d have to say:
22. Van der Garde7th March 2013, 9:16 at 9:16 am #225327
With you lot on Vergne & Gutierrez being the most frequent first hurdle fallers (besides the obvious four!), but must say I expect di Resta to rack up a fair few Q1 failures this year and that Sutil will be one of the unlucky ones in Melbourne.7th March 2013, 10:57 at 10:57 am #225328
In a recent interview, Vergne said his qualifying woes were at least partly explained by two things: 1. getting the tyres up to temperature/to work (which should be easier on this year’s tyres), and 2. Setting the car up with understeer, because in the races the cars are rear-tyre limited, so an understeering car in qualifying will give you a better race car. I don’t know how that will be in 2013. Bottom line: in 2013 JEV need not be a bad qualifier.
I think the really interesting part about Q1 will be: which top drivers will dare not to run the option tyre, and who will make a mistake on their first flying lap, because, as @me4me pointed out, it looks like you only get a single decent lap out of 2013 Pirellis.
On pure pace, I suspect Toro Rosso will be the slowest midfield cars for the start of the season, as they have focussed on improving mechanical grip first, I think, with aerodynamic improvement coming later in the season. Of course, Melbourne is not massively aero-reliant, so they may escape Q1 there anyway.7th March 2013, 11:55 at 11:55 am #225329
There is always some fun & excitement on the first quali of the year (about bl**dy time- game on!!). I say one of the big boys will go out so lets say…………..um……Seb- will see if he can come through from the back again.
I have said this before but instead of the guys that know that cant improve in Q3 and run ‘sector times’ (like Torro Rosso for example last year) why not have all cars start on their tyres from Q1 or Q2, give the top 10 two sets of sticky qualifying tyres like the old days?? Two runs of 1 lap on each- we see who is the fastest!!7th March 2013, 19:46 at 7:46 pm #225330
Unless we get a repeat of Malaysia 2010 it will be the usual suspects plus Gutierrez and I have a feeling Sutil will also be knocked out.7th March 2013, 19:57 at 7:57 pm #225331
17. Sutil (due to rustiness)
18. Gutierrez (wasn’t impressed by his GP2 campaign)
19. Bianchi (good qualifier, may surprise the other backmarkers)
22. Van der Garde7th March 2013, 23:49 at 11:49 pm #225332
Vergne and Gutierrez.
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