You could (kind of) argue that McLaren is already the team to beat. They might well have won in Spain, if only overtaking was a bit easier. Button was looking good for the win in Monaco, until that dubious strategy call, whilst Hamilton would likely have been even quicker if he hadn’t made so many daft mistakes. And, of course, they won in Canada despite a pretty catastophic race for both their drivers!
Obviously, Red Bull are still looking dominant in qualifying- but, as has became clear over the last few months, qualifying in the Pirelli/ DRS era doesn’t mean nearly as much as it used to