pre-collision in Malaysia, Vettel was in P4 and Webber P5, so factually speaking he was leading Webber.
Remember, Webber was leading Vettel up until his slow stop, which dropped him behind both Seb and Kimi. And no, I do not believe that neither Webber nor Vettel would have passed Hamilton. That leaves Lewis P3, Mark P4, Seb P5.
Also have you factored in “moving others down?” ie say Vettel won in Valencia – you’d have to move Alonso to P2, Hamilton to P4 (without Maldonado crash), Raikkonen to P3 etc.
Yes, I did.