I see your point and you are right, i mostly agree. Alonso has been unlucky this season, Suzuka and Spa were two races were he could easily score 2 second places and in the worst scenario 2 3rd places so by now he should have a +30 at least wich should have put him at least +17 in regards to Vettel,I said and repeat “at least” because is the worst scenario he could/should have more than that. We have to calculate also the point that vettel lose in Malaysia so + 7 of vettel there we end up with Alonso +10 at least…going to Brasil
In Monza Alonso wasn’t unlucky, because i do not consider mechanical problem unlucky or lucky situation. Mechanical problem are down to engineers and different departments and highly very highly related with the speed of the car. Mostly of the time teams sacrifice the speed to have a better reliability or they gamble with reliability to gain in speed…Ferrari have found a good reliability but not speed, Mclaren the opposite, Red Bull something in the middle.
I also do not consider any type of penalty or punishment as luck or unluck. Penalties are consequences of an act. When a driver (or a team) make a move (which is called an act) he is fully responsible of the consequences, i.e Ferrari in Austin and Red Bull in Abu Dhabi makes their moves (Massa break seal, Vettel changed car) both these moves end up with penalties (Massa +5, Vettel start from pit lane) but can we call these unlucky?? for sure not. The penalty in f1 are the same as in all the others field of the life, if we consider penalty in f1 unlucky then also all the guys in prisons over the world must be all unlucky…
What i consider unlucky/lucky situation is when something happens out of the control of the driver and the team.
Accidents and weather are the two situation when the driver(and team) dont have any type of a control. By accidents i mean accident when a driver is not responsible: like Webber and Rosberg in Japan,the strike that grosejan make in Spa, Massa in Valencia, Button in Korea, Alonso in Japan, Vettel in Malaysia…etc
By weather i mean that teams and driver canot predict how the weather is gonna end up(even if they have tools it’s a little bit of luck there)..they make a move and them 2 laps later start raining…it’s a bit of luck there even they make weather predictions.
So to end up Alonso has been very unlucky this season it’s like he had the right to race 18 out of 20 races, and all the others were allowed to the full 20 races…but who knows all this unluck can be transformed in luck in the last race…because one thing is for sure to win the championship Alonso now needs luck that can be weather or accidents (involved vettel).