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  • #289336
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    Iestyn Davies
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    What about ‘meltdown mode’, where small teams collapse and three car teams start running?

    Or the ability to do a YDT with Caterham, who then promptly go bust? Leaving you in the dark, seeking a third driver role with Force India.. then after a year of FP1s, maybe you can get a big break.

    Cheat mode: You bring enough cash to rescue a backmarker team.

    #289334
    Profile photo of Iestyn Davies
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Here’s a ranking from F1metrics’ comments section. Lewis’ consistency in 2007 makes it his best season by points scored, ahead of this year and 2009. 08, 10, and 12 probably drop from crashes; I might have 2010 as his best season, ahead of 2007, 2012 or 2014.

    “Despite common perception, they actually had one of the larger gaps as team-mates. They were certainly very close over one lap, but Hamilton almost always had a race advantage. I feel like this perception came from:

    1) Similar one lap pace, coupled with Hamilton’s frequent qualifying issues.

    2) Mercedes being so dominant that, excluding reliability issues, you’d finish second even with a poor performance.

    3) A small points swing per race, as reliability is a bigger factor than usual. Hamilton suffered much more unreliability in the first half of the season, to Nico’s 1 retirement and ERS failure, though this evened out over the course of the season.

    4) Hamilton’s lacklustre 2013 season – his first season in a new team, struggling with the brakes, while Rosberg was in his fourth season at the team. The result was a close points battle (189-171) despite Rosberg suffering more mechanical retirements, giving the impression that the two were very closely matched.

    This season Hamilton seemed much further ahead of Rosberg – 11 wins to 5, but, Monaco/Spa excluded, and races where one driver suffered a mechanical issue in the race or qualifying, then Rosberg only beat Hamilton twice – Austria and Brazil (both times Hamilton spun, yet still finished 2 seconds behind), and never overtook Hamilton on track.

    To get an idea of how likely Rosberg is to beat Hamilton next year, I took the ppr values of Hamilton’s career performances and added them to a graph that also included Hamilton and Rosberg’s 2014 ppr values. This was the result: https://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/579x250q90/r/537/yY31gk.png

    Interestingly, all of Hamilton’s seasons best Rosberg’s 2014, apart from 2011. This suggests that, unless Hamilton suffers another 2011-esque meltdown or reliability issues, Rosberg will need to up his game fairly significantly to beat him – even Hamilton’s second worst season (2013) is around 0.35 ppr higher than Rosberg’s 2014.

    If Hamilton continues at this level (8.23, 1.09 ppr higher than Rosberg) or even improves next year, it will be tough for Rosberg to beat him – being in his 10th season of F1, huge improvements between seasons aren’t expected (although Hamilton did have a jump of around 0.7 ppr from 2013-2014, from settling into the team and being comfortable with the car).

    It’s difficult to make a reliable judgement without seeing the model’s data of Rosberg’s previous career performances – I presume he performed very well in the past, though I am not sure how reliable the comparison to Schumi is given his age & years away from the sport (evidenced by Rosberg falling to 15th ‘all-time’, if 2010 comparison with Schumi is excluded).”

    #288980
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @ph Well, that’s probably why Button could accept a base rate pay cut from 12 million to 2.5 million!

    Red Bull are clearly thinking along those lines too – the average age of their 4 drivers being under 21 next year?

    #288549
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Pretty sure that the first one I can remember seeing was the ’99 Sauber, or something of that ilk. It was on display in Sepang Airport around the time that the Malaysian GP started, as it had prominent Petronas branding. Probably seen a few here. I remember how they didn’t look real, quite big (or smaller than you’d expect), very ‘plastic’ etc.

    More recently, I got the same feeling when at a Vodafone McLaren event in Manchester, however I think that was because they cut + pasted various recent McLarens together! But sitting in the cockpit and driving a simulation lap was very interesting, using the real steering wheel, feeling the ‘hydraulic’ brake, and seeing how held still your thighs are etc.

    #288311
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @craig-o Was it not Mercedes that divested itself of McLaren when it bought Brawn GP in 2010? I think that went through by 2012, and in 2013 McLaren had to pay for customer engines, hence signing Perez for £5m over someone like Hulkenberg, who cost them WCC bonus money hitting Lewis in Brazil.

    I agree that 2012 is the one that got away from Lewis/McLaren, and in 2010 they were unlucky. Lewis took it to Red Bull when they didn’t have reliability, but that flipped around in 2012. Those 3 teams really had more of a ‘number 1 driver’ just generally, while to be honest Lewis should have been McLaren number one. You can’t fight others when you are fighting in your team, e.g. 2007, while 2005 and 2003 were also lost championship chances.

    Williams I just felt had gone into ‘McLaren minor’ mode, i.e. only able to produce a good car every other year, as above, hence 2011 and 2013 sucking hard. But last year they, like Caterham, hindered themselves by losing performance trying to apply an EBD. Hence Bottas’ COTA points once they took the damn thing off the car!

    McLaren have probably done something similar by trying to chase pull rod suspension, but that’s something that Alonso may actually want them to keep plugging away at…

    #288298
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Not Hamilton leaving, but Mercedes leaving – that prompted Hamilton to follow them instead, knowing they had the cash to strike gold in the new engine formula. He also knew that a big part of the McLaren success was the backing of Mercedes – without that, McLaren would have been nowhere since Senna and Honda left the team.

    Before that – TAG/Porsche with Prost – which left Dennis in the position he is in now, i.e. the equal minor of 3 partners, him and Ojjeh, and Mumtalakat (Bahrain sovereign wealth fund). He needs to buy a majority to lead the team if others disagree with him, giving us the driver squabble, which is actually about the future of McLaren.

    Perez being hired as a pay driver was the first sign of trouble (i.e. without the subsidy of Mercedes engines). Magnussen is now in the same situation, Ron is trying to provide his vision of the future, i.e. Ron/Magnussen/Danish sponsorship allowing him to take control of McLaren. Button brings no sponsors – so can only stay on as a ‘luxury’ number 2.

    But it’s not forthcoming – there’ll be no driver decision made until January, and it’ll be concurrent with resolving Dennis’ role in the team. At this point, I think there’s more chance of McLaren matching Williams in future, rather than Mercedes or Red Bull, but that’s all Alonso needs to be in with a fighting chance, as at Ferrari he basically had none.

    #288292
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @kingshark‘s paragraph on Alonso has to be the paragraph of this thread! Like Clark, 2x WDC is a low amount for such a good driver, like 0x for Moss. @danieru summed it up when he said the Ferrari was a midfield car at best this year.

    @keithedin I think that’s Guetta’s tribute to Grosjean’s success late last year. But the song title and video matter take on a new resonance for me, of hinting towards Jules Bianchi’s crash sadly. Nice song though.

    #288286
    Profile photo of Iestyn Davies
    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @atticus-2 I imagine that would now end up like 4-4 & 3:

    Mercedes -> Williams (or Force India)
    Red Bull -> Toro Rosso
    Ferrari -> Haas (replacing Marussia)
    McLaren -> Manor (Mugen-Honda?)
    Lotus, Force India and Sauber

    Really, we need VW to come in and boost team numbers now to give us:
    Audi -> VW Sauber (Audi will set up a new team in Germany, replacing Toyota)

    And we lost a potential Renault works/junior team if Red Bull went their own way:
    Lotus -> Caterham (which would have been ironic after Lotus vs. Lotus)

    It used to be a potential 3-3-2-2-2:
    Mercedes – Williams – Force India (Mercedes)
    Ferrari – Sauber – Haas (Ferrari)
    Red Bull – Toro Rosso (Renault)
    McLaren – Manor (Honda)
    Lotus – Caterham (Renault.. but they would suit Mercedes, ending up Lotus – Force India)

    Customer engines available for the same price as old V8s would be an easy cost cut – that might reduce Mercedes’ advantage unless they would write off more for winning PR/R&D, in which case it might increase…

    @junior-pilot ART is half-owned by Todt’s son.. they tried to join in 2011 but gave up when it was impossible.

    #288158
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @benh Yes, that’s what I meant.. probably a YDT day with Renault, alongside say Esteban Ocon (like Alex Lynn did this year, which shows @jb001‘s point that he can stand on his own two feet). Looks like Stoneman could have a good career in the US then!

    PS. I hope Tuscher doesn’t fall by the wayside, while Zamparelli becomes the next Chilton, even if a slightly Italian version (he would’ve matched with Minardi!), although he had a cash shortage in 2010. GP2 next for him? Tuscher I hope fights for the GP3 title next year.

    #288110
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @jb001 It seems like most fringe F1 drivers are now moving to Indycar/DTM/WEC. Carlin moving there provides a regular outlet from the European ladder.

    I would have liked to see Stoneman as development driver at Williams, taking up the role he lost to cancer a few years ago. He’s matched Lynn on pace in a top GP3 team, along with Kirchhoefer, as the stand-out three in that series. I think Stanaway might have done better in a top team too, emulating how Stoneman moved forwards at Koiranen.

    Sadly, I can only see Lynn getting near an F1 car, which is a shame for raw talents like Tuscher as well, although Mardenborough might get to drive one too, with Nissan’s backing, unless they stick solely to WEC (in which case, why bother with F3 and GP3).

    #288108
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    What marks out Hulkenberg is his consistency.. but like Hamilton, he’s aggressive. This cost him in Bahrain, as despite passing Perez in the race, after starting way behind, once the safety car came out, his tyres were toast for the end. Ricciardo should have gotten 3rd off Perez, but was baulked by Vettel mid-race, if I remember correctly, and Hulk held him back near the end, to help the team get 3rd.

    Montreal was a missed chance for Force India; brake issues stopped Perez passing Rosberg and romping away to an amazing victory. Williams could also have stayed out in front, and Bottas would have won without issues too. However, the Massa crash was Perez’s fault, although dodgy brakes may have influenced his move across in the braking zone.

    The comparison I’d use here is Hamilton vs. Button. If tyre life is number one, e.g. 2011, the softer driver prevails. When it comes down to pace, like 2010/2012, then the quicker driver wins, i.e. Hamilton or Hulkenberg. Alonso can drive any situation, which marks him out as the best in the field.

    In a top car, Hulk would do as well as Grosjean, Webber at worst, normally would match Massa, Button, or Kubica in good form over a season, and if he does well, might possibly join that top echelon, like Rosberg. He’d need the car to be fully developed around him IMO; being Ferrari no.2 to Vettel will make him Barrichello Mk.II, while number one at Audi may see him flourish into a mid-2000s Raikkonen or Alonso, or current Hamilton.

    #288107
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Not to mention the cars too – the 2014 cars improved massively over the season, many seconds per lap.

    This was shown by matching 2013 times in the last few races, being faster at Interlagos via turbo/ERS gains, and Force India being left behind from mid-season onwards, after a mistake in car development held them back.

    There could be big gains again for 2015, with Mercedes confident of finding another 60 hp, and Honda matching their 2014.

    #288106
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @keithedin Good to see an update to this thread! I was using it in my predictions for the last three races! It looks like the softer tyre probably helped Nico, and it’s on the harder compounds that Lewis usually hauls him in on in the races.

    I don’t mind the races being slower, as that’s now an ‘economy drive’ for fuel and tyres. As long as qualifying is still “100%”, and we see the full performance of the car then, it might be an improvement actually to show both high performance and fuel efficiency in one weekend.

    Williams have really turned a corner. Their development rate was good, matching the richer teams, and I can see them thumping Ferrari again this year, possibly McLaren-Honda, and maybe matching Red Bull, unless any of them have taken a distinct step forwards before Melbourne.

    #288105
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    Sad to see double points ‘gimmicked’, as there was rationale behind it before, balancing up the Ovals with Road/Street, and matching ‘double distance’ with ‘double points’, also giving 3 ‘Triple Crown’ events.

    Dropping standing starts is probably wiser in the Indycar, seeing the Indy wreck. They’re not as safe as F1, and cruise at higher speeds on ovals, so more precautions are needed.

    #288104
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    Iestyn Davies
    Participant

    @atticus-2 Maybe 30th August might be better? At least the two clashes left wouldn’t be too close together, i.e. Canada vs. Russia, and China vs. Japan.

    @keithcollantine What’s the thinking behind this calendar? Reach new markets? Or is it whoever will pay the FIA to host WTCC?

    @robk23 Sounds like those two are primed for a summer holiday in Southern Europe!

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 758 total)