Red Bull and Ferrari took a lead in the development race at the Hockenheimring and used it to inflict damage on McLaren’s lead in the championship.
McLaren’s rivals have an opportunity to take more points off them at the Hungaroring and carry the momentum into the three-week summer break that follows.
McLaren on the back foot
McLaren have won the last three races at the Hungaroring but, on the strength of their form so far this season, they’re not favourites to win this weekend. The Hungaroring calls for maximum downforce, much like Monte-Carlo, where McLaren were third fastest at best.
On top of that, they’re struggling to understand their rival’s latest technical innovation – a flexing front wing used on the RB6 and F10 – while still getting to grips with their exhaust-blown diffuser.
However this is a track where Lewis Hamilton has fared well in the past – in three years he’s scored two pole positions and two wins.
Expect this weekend’s race to be between Ferrari and Red Bull. Renault might even be in a position to help them out by nabbing some more points off McLaren.
The situation at Ferrari
Qualifying is especially important at the Hungaroring because the track has no long straights to provide a significant opportunity for overtaking.
Saturday’s session at the Hockenheimring turned into a shoot-out between Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel. We could see a repeat this weekend, potentially with Mark Webber and Felipe Massa in the mix as well.
This is where it gets interesting, as we meet the unavoidable topic of Ferrari’s team orders.
Red Bull’s drivers have both won races this year – indeed, they’ve each headed one-two finishes for their team on different occasions. For all the doubts raised over Webber’s popularity within the team compared to Vettel, with both drivers on the same number of points it’s likely both will be allowed to fight for victory this weekend.
But we know the same is not true for Felipe Massa. The question is, with a World Motor Sports Council hearing pending and the threat of further punishment, will Ferrari repeat their team orders if the wrong man is ahead again this weekend?
Massa will be the centre of attention this weekend as he returns to the track which he was taken away from in a medical helicopter just over a year ago. It’s an uncomfortable thought that he’s now expected to take the same risks but must sacrifice the spoils of success to his team mate.
The other interesting aspect to the Ferrari-Red Bull battle is that the RB6s continue to lack the kind of advantage in the race they have in qualifying. If Vettel and Webber lock-out the front row again it could prove the precursor to an exciting, Istanbul-style race with the Ferraris in the role previously played by McLaren.
Trouble with traffic
A final characteristic of the Hungaroring which could provide some interest is traffic.
It’s a short track, roughly the same length as Montreal, and we saw there how important it is for the leaders to make decisive moves in traffic and not get held up by them.
But unlike Montreal the Hungarian track has several sequences of corners where it’s difficult to pass a lapped car without losing a significant amount of time. And backmarkers are especially loathe to pull over as it tend to be dusty off the racing line.
Drivers to watch
Four driver to keep an eye on this weekend. Name your top picks in the comments.
Fernando Alonso – Whenever criticism of him off the track has been strongest, he’s usually responded with an emphatic performance behind the wheel. Think Monza 2007 and Singapore 2009.
Felipe Massa – Will be as much the centre of attention as his team mate after what went on last weekend.
Robert Kubica – Has played down suggestions he might repeat his Monaco performance but expect this to be a good track for him. Could cause trouble for the McLarens.
Sakon Yamamoto – Started the German Grand Prix with his pit lane speed limiter on and ended it by accidentally switching his engine off. What comic relief does he have in store this weekend?
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2010 Hungarian Grand Prix
Image (C) www.mclaren.com
Steezy
29th July 2010, 12:03
Hungaroring is closer to circuits like Silverstone and Catalunya than Hockenheim was. I’m still adamant that the circuit played a major role in Ferrari being so close. If anyone remembers, Red Bull were basically a second faster than everyone in qualifying at Spain and Silverstone.
It’s a shorter circuit, so we might not see the gap being one second again. But don’t fool yourselves into thinking that Ferrari have closed the gap so much from Silverstone to Hockenheim, really…it’s the same illusion that McLaren had when they were winning and how they praised the development team for the MP4-25. Red Bull just need to get their act together to shatter it like they did to McLaren.
Sam
29th July 2010, 12:11
agreed, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ferrari are some way off the pace again this weekend
BBQ2
29th July 2010, 12:25
I don’t think it is a matter of “getting their act together” , but a typical Newey phenomena: [Create fast car but not reliable enough]. Now, the mistake McLaren might be making is relying too much on the opponent’s cars, which is not reliable. Today I read both RB6s had engine problems at Hock. They also do not start well as compared to the MP4-25s and the F10s.
We also tend to forget these cars are just in their second season. So engineers are still struggling to understand them well.
US_Peter
29th July 2010, 19:57
Everyone has made some pretty significant leaps forward since Barcelona though, so you really can’t use that as a benchmark. If anything I think Red Bull and Ferrari will be further ahead of McLaren this weekend, as this isn’t a circuit that should be suited to the MP4-25 with its high-speed straight-line dominance.
Spectator
30th July 2010, 2:13
by reading this post i feel some pessimism about mclarens prospects but by reading the comments i feel some over confidence anyway there are some hard feelings about the old rivalry between ferrari and mclaren my prevision is victory for 1 of the redbull and then 3 way fight for 2nd and 3rd between alonso hamilton and 1 of the redbull outsider is kubica renault should be strong there and the hun gp was his first williams should be up there aswell
Spectator
30th July 2010, 3:49
and still i dont believe that ferraris improve is all due to an new front wing which is considered by mclaren as possibly illegal it is still not as developed as the red bulls and mclarens wing it has a smaller bridge and 3 big stages on the lower part and i dont see it flexing as much as mclarens or redbull i need some proof maybe it is more efficient i dont know but it seems very solid maybe the secret is the redbull inspired nose
Nixon
29th July 2010, 12:10
Great article Kieth. I think the real pressure is one ALonso who needs a win or to beat his team mate. But i have a gut feeling that Hamilton might have a shunt.
TBone
29th July 2010, 14:47
Agree with that, Ferrari may come unstuck if Massa is ahead after lap 1 as surely they couldn’t repeat last weekend?
Also think Hamilton is due a DNF as he’s had a relatively lucky run. I don’t think McLaren are really seven tenths off as they’ve had next to zero set up time in the dry with the EBF. Once they dial it in I’m sure they’ll be much closer though still not the fastest.
US_Peter
29th July 2010, 19:58
It would be great to see Massa ahead after lap 1 just to watch Alonso and Domenicali come unhinged. Go Massa!
Eric
29th July 2010, 12:23
McLaren will just run less fuel so they can go faster during the start of the race and hope they manage to get past a few.
then save fuel for the rest of the race, how dam stupid of me that would be Team Orders wouldn’t it??
i am pretty convince Ferrari have finally sorted there car, i was happy for them before but not now after what they did to Massa.
so go RBR sock it to em.
Patrickl
29th July 2010, 14:27
No, that would not be (forbidden) team orders.
Derek
29th July 2010, 12:26
It’s all down to good qualifying, weather conditions or a crash at the start. It’s so difficult to overtake here. You forgot to mention that Jensen also won on this circuit, so both McLaren’s know what to do here. I would not write them off just yet!
antonyob
29th July 2010, 12:42
My least favourite GP weekend of the season bar Monaco but as even that race was ok-ish this season we may get 1 or 2 overtakes and a bit of oversteer to watch.
I was wondering whether a car has ever won the WDC and WCC with a car that that is, like the Mclaren, probably only 3rd quickest and with 2 drivers taking points off each other rather than a clear no 1 strategy?
Moss famously did it in some races but never over a season and others outdrove their car, ie Senna, but only from a midfield team
All these years of “the quickest car wins” is either no longer the case or the nuances of who is quickest changes much more subtley than is easily measurable.
Anyway, probably slightly off topic but hay its a blog!
rfs
29th July 2010, 12:57
“the quickest car wins”
But “to finish first you have to first finish”. That’s what Red Bull failed to do in the first half of the season.
Tango
29th July 2010, 12:58
YEah, I was thinking the same. Bar Canada, there wasn’t a single race week end when I was thinking : McLaren have a real chance of winning… And still they are first in both standings. Whether it will remain this way is another matter, but till now, it has been a pretty impressive feat.
Derek
29th July 2010, 15:18
Yes, it has happened before. Prost did it in a McLaren when Piquet & Mansell took points off each other driving a Williams in the 1986 Championship.
K Rosberg did it in 1982 and only won one GP when Ferrari were very fast but had a lot of driver accidents.
glue
29th July 2010, 13:04
which tyres will Bridgestone bring?
sato113
29th July 2010, 13:24
super soft and medium
glue
29th July 2010, 13:32
that’s good for Ferrari
Calum
29th July 2010, 13:07
So basically Mclaren hope that the 2 redbulls, 2 ferraris, Kubica and possibly Nico Rosberg crash at the turn one hairpin on Sunday so they have a chance of winning, oh dear woudnt bet on it!!
antonyob
29th July 2010, 13:09
the only one you shouldnt bet on is Massa.
DGR-F1
29th July 2010, 13:18
As its such as difficult circuit with so many corners, won’t that take the advantage away from the quicker Red Bulls and Ferraris and give a chance to the McLarens, and the other slower cars?
And since its going to be hard to overtake and pass the back-markers, I think we are liable to see the return of ‘Mr Angry’ Alonso and a frustrated Massa, unless they can qualify 1-2.
I also have a feeling that the Ferrari PR people will be taking the opportunity to point out the ‘hypocrisy’ of the other teams and any orders that are given about strategy, fuel saving, tyre wear etc, just to make their point.
Apart from that, I did always think it was a long, hot, pointless sort of race, but in the last couple of seasons I have begun to appreciate the nuances of trying to overtake on a track where it appears to be impossible, though I hadn’t realised that it had been altered!
Tango
29th July 2010, 14:40
Wishful thinking, but I hope too :D
Derek
29th July 2010, 15:27
No, McLaren are the fastest car in a strait line. It’s the lack of down force that slows them over a lap. It’s in the corners that you need plenty down force. So in theory, McLaren should struggle against the RB & Ferrari who are said to have greater down force.
DGR-F1
29th July 2010, 15:43
I thought the RBs and Ferraris only gained the extra downforce as they went faster, so if they are going slower, they won’t get the advantage?
MacademiaNut
29th July 2010, 16:10
That was my understanding too.. in fast corners, the EBD gives a lot more downforce. If the corners are slower, then their advantage is not that significant.
Ron in Michigan
29th July 2010, 17:26
We all know that no one motivates McClaren like ferrari does. Couple that with McClarens unexplained ability to do well at this track and i just can’t dismiss chances to score good points this weekend.
Besides, Jenson has done well since reconciling with his GF. And we know who the best overtaker in F1 is.
sato113
29th July 2010, 13:23
http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/239932/at-a-glance-hungaroring-race-winners/
only 1 of the last 5 races here have been won from pole… hmmm
Todfod
29th July 2010, 13:30
Drivers to watch – Sakon Yamamoto
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHA!!!
Thats a good one. Lets hope the Race TV director gives him some airtime.
Didn’t know Keith had a sense of humour.
wasiF1 (@wasif1)
29th July 2010, 13:52
Yeah nice work done by Keith on that, he deserve to do anything with that car as he is paying huge amount of MONEY to the team in order to get the seat.
tobinen
29th July 2010, 16:15
I laughed too! I didn’t know he’d done that!
Charles Carroll
29th July 2010, 17:07
That was well-played, Keith! I couldn’t have said it better about the Yam myself!
US_Peter
29th July 2010, 20:03
Hey Keith, did you ever get a definitive answer one way or the other from HRT about him shutting off his own engine? We know the pitlane limiter really happened at the start from DiGrassi’s account…
wasiF1 (@wasif1)
29th July 2010, 13:42
I hope that Ferrari are back in pace & Massa do something on this track( win) which will help him to forget what happened to him here in 2009 & last week.
Webber didn’t seemed to be in the raider in the last race so I hope he too come back in action.
Not sure too much about Mclaren, I think they will be behind the top two teams.
US_Peter
29th July 2010, 20:07
Webber had bad tire luck racing against Button (the tire master), followed by engine trouble that cost him the ability to push Button later in the race. There’s a good account of it in James Allen’s recap: http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2010/07/german-grand-prix-the-key-decisions/
John H
29th July 2010, 13:46
“The Hungaroring calls for maximum downforce, much like Monte-Carlo, where McLaren were third fastest at best.”
But so do Silverstone and Barcelona where the teams run almost full front and rear wing. Hamilton was second in both (almost) while the Ferraris were a little off the pace in the race.
Let’s see, but I expect the unexpected this weekend. Should be interesting.
glue
29th July 2010, 14:42
yeah, but the Hungaroring doesn’t have those demanding high-speed sweepers, so it will require significant mechanical grip as well as downforce
jose arellano
29th July 2010, 17:05
monte carlo is almost full front and rear wing, but silverstone and barcelona not
Gilles
29th July 2010, 13:47
Guys, I just had a look at the weather forecast: RAIN !
Adam Smith
29th July 2010, 14:23
Qualifying will be extremely important here, but what is exciting is that its going to be difficult with the traffic as you mentioned. Like we saw at Montreal, the big teams getting caught up with back markers and the like. I’m not looking forward to this race as much as the others, but I think we could be surprised, as races this have been enthralling, except for Bahrain (and maybe Hockenheim too).
I’m intrigued to see the lack of McLaren’s progress with development over this year. I mean granted, they did not start with the quickest car once again, Red Bull and Ferrari seemed to have the advantage, but where is this phenominal pace of development they are meant to provide. They must be happy for this 3 week break so they can try and get their heads round all the new updates they must bring.
Anybody got any clues as to why McLaren are struggling?
Patrickl
29th July 2010, 14:29
A crash for Lewis in FP1 (and subsequently missing most of FP2) might have held them back somewhat?
Tango
29th July 2010, 15:10
I think the rate of development of Mc Laren has been ok. They followed closely RBR’s one and managed to keep in touch, it allowed them to be the team reaping the awards of RBR’s failures (instead of Ferrari, though on might argueu the quality of the drivers has helped). Now Ferrari has finally come to terms with its development and seems to have done quite a massiv jump forward. It is quite possible McLaren has the possibility of achieving such a jump when themselves will get to grisp with the two evolutions they haven’t mastered yet : blown diffuser and flexible front wing. If they manage to score decent points in Hungary (4th and 5th or 5th and 6th) and Ferrari stop Red Bull from having a complete lockout, then I’d say the 3 weeks break will be most welcome and allow them to do what’s necessary to complete the update jump they now need (hopefully, RBR and Ferrari have already “eaten” the update margin they had)
Patrickl
29th July 2010, 16:56
Yeah, it seems like Ferrari put all there effort in one big upgrade rather than a continuous development path.
So far it has give McLaren a lot of points while Ferrari was working on their big upgrade.
This meant that McLaren overtook Ferrari after Ferrari was fastest in Bahrain and only in Hockenheim really seems to be on top again (although maybe Silverstone they were there already too)
Will be interesting to see if Ferrari now got ahead and can make up for their defecit over the 9 races between Bahrain and Hockenheim.
xabregas
29th July 2010, 14:27
I expect more of the same like Germany. RBR and Ferrari wull be the best with maybe Hamilton in the mixture.
Kubica can do something too. Now, after what happened in last´s GP, Massa knows clearly what´s his job is.
Button neads to step his game too or he´ll be the next victim after Massa.
If it rains like 2006, than we´ll have an exciting race, but the players should be the same.
Rahim RG
29th July 2010, 14:46
Driver to Watch….Adrian Sutil…Foorce india are getting big uprades and if they can boounce back with top 6 Result…i think they could be fighting for a podium in Spa and monza like last year….
DaveW
29th July 2010, 14:54
Is that dig on Yamamoto really OK now? I know its for laffs but it’s kind of going on and on now. Seriously, the the pit limiter is not the only reason the red light flashes, in case people didn’t know that. And it is consistent with electrical system failures. The team denied the fire extinguisher rumor, but I guess we don’t believe it becuase, that Yamamoto! He is a damn sight closer to his teammate than Fisichella or Badoer were to theirs after jumping into the car, and no one, but no one, would have cast those drivers as moneyed charlatans before their turns in the dunk tank.
Since people are checking papers these days, I’ll add that I’m not Japanese.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
29th July 2010, 14:56
I exchanged emails with the team and they repeatedly failed to deny that either of the problems were caused by Yamamoto.
Given the circumstances in which he’s got his drive I think it’s entirely appropriate to question whether he’s good enough.
Tango
29th July 2010, 15:36
Badoer and Fisi weren’t compared to Senna (Bruno) and Chandhok
Dev
29th July 2010, 15:05
i think car with good balance, braking stability going into corners… very good mechanical grip…
i feel if Mclaren can find some more downforce from the new package… they do have a shot at being on the front row and maybe a podium…
antonyob
29th July 2010, 15:22
but Mclaren were the 2nd quickest werent they. 2nd quickest have beaten 1st loads of time, schumacher v hill springs immedietely to mind but 3rd quickest car?
antonyob
29th July 2010, 15:41
“(bruno)”
cheers for the clarification !!;@)
Scalextric
29th July 2010, 16:16
“the RB6s continue to lack the kind of advantage in qualifying they have in the races.”
Surely some mistake!
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
29th July 2010, 16:28
Qualifying and race back-to-front – changed it, thanks.
Calum
29th July 2010, 16:23
How did the 09 Mclaren do so well if it was really bad, but this years decent Mclaren is expected to do rubbish?
Patrickl
29th July 2010, 17:00
Because last year’s McLaren best feature was it’s low speed grip and the assumption is that this track is comparable to Monaco. This year’s McLaren doesn’t seem to do too well in that regard.
Personally I think they will do fine though. I agree with some other comments that Hungaroring probably resembles more the other “medium speed high downforce” tracks like Canada and Barcelona.
FAB1
29th July 2010, 16:40
i find it quite amusing that after 1 race people think ferrari are on top. people seem to have forgotten that one team has one the last 3 hungarian gp’s (4 if u include buttons)…. what people also fail to realise is that last year hamilton one with a car that lacked downforce thoughout the season… so rule out mclaren at ur peril… another red bull pole is likely, but who knows after turn 1 with red bulls poor starts (massa might be a good tip (as long as it doesn’t rain!!) given fernandos poor starts, especially as the ferrari could not get away with anything like hockenheim again given th wmsc meeting). if it rains that also plays into mclarens hands, with a car good in the wet (shanghai, melbourne)
goodluck felipe
steph
30th July 2010, 11:10
I don’t think anyone would rule out Mclaren.
” that after 1 race people think ferrari are on top”
They were quick at Canada, Valencia and Hock. That could be because that type of circuit suits them but they were also handy at Silverstone or would have been had they not mini imploded.
STRFerrari4Ever
29th July 2010, 19:44
This race is going to be a straight fight between Red Bull & Ferrari in my opinion. The RB6 has been brilliant at every circuit so far this season and I don’t expect anything to change. The F10 was menacing at Monaco till Alonso’s mistake in FP3 but this weekend they could be show the same level of performance they showed in Hockenheim. This will be a very tight battle.
Elsewhere if Hamilton can wring the neck of the MP4/25 then he could get in there but I highly doubt McLaren will be challenging seriously for a win in dry conditions. Despite winning the last 3 Hungarian Grand Prixs.
Renault’s R30 should be suited to this track but it’s going to take quite something for Kubica to get it on the podium let alone victory, It’s going to be amazing to watch him thrashing the car around! Finally my beloved Toro Rosso say they’re bringing a new diffuser to Hungary so I’m rather optimistic. I’m curious as to whether they’ve gone down the route of the RB6 or if it’s just a minor change to the diffuser.
I hope that if it’s a significant change or not it can provide the laptime to propel them forward into the points again.
Here’s hoping for a brilliant weekend! :)
SoLiDG (@solidg)
29th July 2010, 21:56
I’m curious if McLaren has some updates. It was only 1 week, but it’s McLaren.
On twitter I saw they where bringing in many floors at Mclaren so I wonder.
They need to do something if they want to keep their lead!
Younger Hamilton
29th July 2010, 22:07
Actually i dont think McLaren are 0.6 secs behind they have limited time to do their set ups in hockenheim due to particular distruptions to their plans and plus they ran less downforce on the rear wings to give themselves a big advantage on the straights.Surely McLaren have got common sense to run more downforce on their wings on a very high downforce and monaco-esq track.Thus with more data and reliablity from the blown diffuser and also a perfect and the best possible car setup from the cars will bring them much closer to the front but not enough to be the fastest.
F1Fan
30th July 2010, 2:46
It should be between Alonso and Vettel again in Q. But you have to question Vettel’s ability to get consistent good starts. He’s blown leads after the 1st corner already twice this year and he did the same last year, at least twice. It used to be the case that if he started on pole he was going to win, but this is starting to not hold true. I don’t think McLaren has a shot here. The straights are simply too short for that engine/F-duct combination to produce a significant benefit. The pole-sitter should win. Then again, if the pole-sitter is Vettel …