How Alonso and Red Bull can win the titles

Brazilian Grand Prix

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Fernando Alonso, Ferrari, Korea, 2010

The drivers’ and constructors’ championship titles could be decided in Interlagos this weekend. Here’s how.

Drivers’ championship

With five drivers still mathematically able to win the championship, Fernando Alonso needs more than just a good result to wrap it up this weekend – he needs the likes of Sebastian Vettel, Mark Webber and Lewis Hamilton to hit trouble.

The only way Alonso can wrap up the title this weekend is by finishing on the podium. After that, it depends where his rivals finish.

With so many different permutations available, remember to keep an eye on the F1 Fanatic Championship Calculator during the race to work out how the current running order might affect the championship.

Obviously the best scenario for Alonso would be a win. As well as being the maximum possible score, it would ensure that if he ended up level on points with another driver he would definitely come out ahead, because no-one else will be able to win more races than him.

If he wins, the only driver who could then beat him to the title is Mark Webber, who would need to finish at least fourth to stay in the championship.

Jenson Button’s situation is dire. Even if he wins the race, his championship is over if Alonso finishes sixth or higher.

Use the F1 Fanatic Championship Calculator to work out the championship positions during the race.

Constructors’ championship

All three teams are still in the hunt for the constructors’ championship. Red Bull will claim the title this weekend if they out-score McLaren by 17 points and lose no more than eight to Ferrari.

If Red Bull finish one-two they are guaranteed to win the title regardless of where the others finish. But although they’ve qualified in those positions eight times this year, they’ve only finished one-two on three occasions.

But on recent performance McLaren are more likely to be worried about losing second place to Ferrari than pinching the title off Red Bull in the dying stages of the season.

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    Keith Collantine
    Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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    84 comments on “How Alonso and Red Bull can win the titles”

    1. I didn’t realise how much of an advantage Alonso actually had… Alonso is in a really good position. I can see the Ferrari being very competitive in Brazil too. *worried face*

      1. Remember that Alonso has this “advantage” because Ferrari manipulated race results in Hokkenheim to his a “advantage”.

        If I was a Ferrari fan I would have a *shameful face* if Alonso clinches title in Brazil!

        1. I think all points of views have been told and debated, well debated.

        2. Much more of a disgrace would be if Lewis Hamilton (who I’m a big fan of) benefits from the 11 points he stole from Alonso by passing the pace car while keeping Alonso behind (Hamilton 2nd – Alonso a minimum of a 3rd finished 8th)….

          1. Younger Hamilton
            3rd November 2010, 23:15

            How would that be a disgrace Lewis and Fernando have had their own share of bad luck this season this is nothing relevant to the incident in Valencia,Get over it its happened its in the past

        3. I agree…. even, the korean GP win is a lottery for Alonso. Poor Vettel !!

          1. It’s the fourth time Alonso has been gifted points(big points) from Vettel’s troubles this year? Bahrain, Spain, Hungary and Korea.

            Alonso is the luckiest guy this year without a doubt! Along with Webber.
            Vettel is by far the most unlucky guy. And now Hamilton as well..

            1. You make you’re own luck in this game. Alonso & Ferrari has been there to collect the points when the others couldn’t.

              F1 is a year long fight, its about not making mistakes, its about reliability, its about speed. Alonso has made plenty mistakes, Vettel too, Hamliton and Webber also, Jenson I’m not sure but probably. They’ve all suffered reliability (or team mistakes) also to a greater and lesser degree. They’ve all won races, the cars have all been there or thereabouts on speed. On that basis whoever wins it deserves it.

              Hockenhiem is an irrelevance, Massa had a choice “Alonso is faster than you, confirm you understand”… one option he had was to go faster than Alonso… he couldn’t.

              In some respects I hope Alonso wins by the smallest of margins, just to see all you “F1 fans” rubbish the sport you supposedly love.

        4. I’m a Ferrari fan and if Alonso wins the championship I’ll have a *Happy Face*.

          1. Oh yeah, so will i :)

        5. @MercedesBeanz. Thank god ur not a Ferrari fan, coz most of us would be thrilled to see Fernando as a champion. Not every season do you see the driver with the second fastest car winning, and this year Fernando would have really deserved the WDC. Let Hockenheim go my man.. just let it go. All that bitterness will make it worse when u see Fernando lifting his third crown.

        6. Remember that Alonso has this “advantage” because Ferrari manipulated race results in Hokkenheim to his a “advantage”.

          11 – 7 = 4?

          1. Yes, I agree with that.

            Some people say that they will consider ALO an unworthy WDC is he wins for less than 7 points. Fair enough, they are entitled to their opinion. But I have mine too.

            ALO was robbed of 11 points in Valencia by a loathsomely unsportsmanlike and downright ugly (on top of illegal) action that should cause its perpetrator eternal shame. It was “punished” by a token uneffective sanction when it was at the very least worthy of a black flag (revoking the superlicense would have been more appropriate).

            So, 11-7=4, and if ALO loses the WDC by 4 points or less I will consider him the true 2010 WDC.

            1. I would think you have to be able to prove malicious intent on Hamilton’s part. Realistically, we’ll have no idea what happened and if it was intentional, it will likely be a secret taken to the grave or discussed post-retirement.

              I do agree the punishment was unnecessarily delayed such that it was ineffective. I highly doubt it was revocation appropriate but you’ve made it clear you’re a passionate Ferrari/Alonso fan (no judgments) so I assume it was hyperbole. As for a black flag, I actually don’t know the rules on that situation and what is black flagable. I assume dangerous driving or malicious intent is but as for anything else, I always assumed it was up to the stewards.

              It is my impression that the safety car is supposed to catch the lead car and allow everyone to fall in. It failed to do so in Valencia and this really created the whole problem.

        7. Wow, people are still going on about this. It’s team orders. They’ve existed in the sport for as long as the sport has existed. The drivers know that, the teams know that, the broadcasters know that and a majority of the fans know that.

          If Alonso wins it in Brazil, I wont have a shameful face at all. He has been one of the top two drivers on the grid this season (the second incidentlly, in my opinion, is Kubica) and will fully deserve crown number three.

          1. Wow, people are still going on about this. It’s team orders. They’ve existed in the sport for as long as the sport has existed.

            And they were (supposedly) banned in 2003, which is why it’s such a talking point. As Christan Horner said recently, they had been operating under the auspices that team orders weren’t allowed.

            1. Quite a comment for Horner to make given the Turkish GP fiasco. Even after 2003 they were still in the sport, Eddie Jordan – a former team owner, said as such on the BBC many a time this year. Yes, I know Eddie is a bit far out there with some of his comments at times, but I dont think this is one of them.

      2. The last think i want is Alonso to be WC. Not really fair after playing team order game. I would love to see Ferrari people faces if his engine blows in race :)
        WC should be Webber if not then Louise.

        1. Louise? LOL!

          I agree though. Webber or Hamilton.

      3. Ferrari won at Interlagos in 2006, 2007, 2008, and Alonso arrived 2nd in 2008, so Alonso and Ferrari have good chances. But let’s not forget Webber won in 2009.

      4. Younger Hamilton
        3rd November 2010, 23:18

        Im not, Us McLaren guys are ready to bring the fight to Alonso and Red Bull and if Alonso does win the title then it will be just like the seasons of 2006-2009 whoever wins the season opener wins the title thats how its being for the past 4 years thats why i dont want Alonso to win it, 2010 supposed to be exciting(It Is) and different

    2. Alonso is in very good shape.
      I hope Hamilton can win Brasil, I know it’s a tough job.
      Then Vettel in front of Webber and Alonso with trouble…
      Then we got a real thriller on our hands.
      Maybe Webber get some trouble 2, Lewis might have a real shot in the final.
      Just hope Alonso doesn’t clinch it yet!

      1. I just hope nobody has any DNF situation. This will show us who ‘deserves’ the wdc.

        But that would leave the ‘clarry boys ….. out of luck!

    3. If ALO wins it at brazil, it will prove that the team orders didn’t really affect end result anyway. However if he wins the champ by less than 7 points at abu dhabi, then you have more to complain about. The reality is that before germany, ALO was miles off the lead, and a team that knows how to win is always cut throat. I’m not saying i’m condoning it, but put if you were in Stenfano’s position, you would probably done the same.

      1. Germany seems such a long time ago now and the fact that both RedBull and McLaren are still not favouring either driver, tells its own story.

        1. If Massa had the pace this year, I can assure you Ferrari would love to have had Massa taking points away from their rivals and not have to back a faster driver so early. Just like Button has pretty much taken himself out of the championship now, McLaren don’t have to favor anyone.

          Red Bull have favored Vettel all along if the points situation were switched between Webber and Vettel, there would be no bogus “straight fight” talk…

        2. The only reason Red Bull and McLaren are backing both drivers is because quite simply both drivers were always closely in it. Both drivers had won races, both drivers were always within a win of the lead (up to the last race anyway).

          Although Massa was leading early in the championship, it was in reality “by default”. He hadn’t shown any flair or speed, had not and has not won a race. By Hockenhiem he was never in the championship and would never be. Ferrari had a choice and at present are looking smart for their decision.

          Lets face it, had Massa kept himself in contention, then one of two things would have happened. Either both Massa & Alonso would still be in contention, and we wouldn’t be having these discussions… or, and more likely, Alomso would have wrapped the title up already, as Massa would have been taking podiums from the competition.

          ps. I’m neither a Ferrari or Alonso fan, and I have great respect for Massa (before, and after Hungary ’09), if anything I’m a McLaren fan… but first and foremost I am a fan of Formula 1 and all that that means.

          1. Two great comments by DougieCow. Respect.

            As ever there does seem to be bitterness from some people about the German switch, however if the Alonso were to win within 7 points, one would have to think what a good championship winning decision it was to make that call, rather than making things worse.

            In 5 years we will only remember his championship (if he wins).

    4. I hope that Teflonso doesn’t win the title. Spain have already won the soccer world cup and Jorge Lorenzo is MotoGP champion. The Spanish will just be insufferable if they add to that tally. Thank God for Sebastian Lobe is all I can say!

      As for this weekend, I predict…the unpredictable.

      1. Good prediction ;)

      2. I hope that Teflonso doesn’t win the title. Spain have already won the soccer world cup and Jorge Lorenzo is MotoGP champion. The Spanish will just be insufferable if they add to that tally.

        Thank god for Wimbledon. Oh, wait…

    5. If Alonso wins in Brazil and fair result in Abu Dhabi, their team order will become useless. It’s shame on Ferrari because they hurt their boy Massa heavily, but sometimes you have to do anything you can and Ferrari is certainly such type. I wish Alonso wins the championship but it will be great if Massa wins in Brazil. I think he’s always great in Brazil and he will overwhelm Button surely and probably even Hamilton and Alonso or Red Bulls with some luck.

      1. Neither Button nor Hamilton have much to lose and maybe if Hamilton wants to run into a red car again, he might not want to pick the one that Massa is driving. *hints*

        More drivers may not be able to win the title by the end of Sundays race, but that doesn’t mean to say that they can’t affect the outcome of the championship at the last race.

        Maybe if, say, Hamilton is running 4th with Webber 5th in Abu dhabi and Alonso, in 1st, needs Hamilton to stay there to win the championship….

        1. Yes, I think Massa’s chance was already over and Button virtually over and Vettel also disadvanteaeous but they could make Alonso or Webber wins or loses. They still can steal or gift amount of points. Massa will be very influential in Brazil and Vettel&Hamilton would be too. Whoever wins the title, I wish Hamilton not rush into Alonso. I don’t want anymore Alonso-Hamilton fanboy conflict.

      2. It is called PASSION!

        1. Others would call it a deferred sense of success with a powdering of ‘hero-eroticism’.

      3. Kimi is not on board so maybe Felipe can win this race ^-^. I’d really like a WDC for Fernando AND an Interlagos win for Felipe.

    6. what i do not want to happen in brazil is MAS 1st and ALO 2nd and on the last lap here comes ferarri team order. surely blogs will have another frenzy of never ending debates. on the other hand maybe the rule/penalty on team orders be revised or entirely abolished next season.

      1. If that were to happen though I don’t think there’d be such an uproar – team orders towards the end of a season are usually expected and understood, and there wasn’t any uproar about China 2008, Brazil 2007.

        1. The rule will have to be abolished next season, for sure. Otherwise it, looks bad on the sport.

          I think a big part of why there would be no complaints now, would be due to it looking like Massa helping Alonso, Rather than Massa being forced to give up his title hopes.

      2. I don’t think Ferrari would use team order in such situation. It’s Brazil and Alonso is not stuck behind rivals anymore. It’s completely useless and even riots could destory all of Ferrari there except Massa.

      3. Yeah I dont realy think that would actualy be a bg deal. Team orders are widely accepted when the yielding driver is out of the title fight.

        1. Anyway a win is very valuable, specially a home win. Felipe would surely hate to go through that again. I do hope that it won’t be needed.

    7. If webber wins at Brazil and abu dhabi and Alonso finishes second at both races webber will take the WDC by 3 points. go mark!!!

      1. it is unlikely to happen!

      1. Yeah, it’s quite obvious he cannot say Hockenheim!

    8. An alonso Ferrari win will be meaningless and bad for the sport due to the fact that autpsport still insist that ferrari slowed down massa during the south korean grand prix to allow for alonso to be ahead again
      see link-
      http://www.autosport.com/features/article.php/id/3151

        1. mark hughes says he was given inside information by asource from ferrari themselvs ..so there isno reason to doubt this allegation

          1. Ht also claims that the race history chart shows that Massa would have passed Alonso, but when you do the math using the actual numbers from the chart this is shown to be false.

    9. It’s interesting to see how having 5 people in the hunt really affects how the championship plays out.

      If Button was 42 points behind the leader but in a 2 way battle then he’d be considered in with a shout to “do a Kimi”, but the chances of all the other 4 having DNFs in every race is very small. Perhaps his only hope is surviving a crazy Brazil downpour?

      I think it would be a brave man to bet against Alonso – all the skittles are lined up perfectly.
      Momentum – check
      Wins on the board – check
      Subservient teammate – check
      Reliability – check
      Personal driving form – check

      I really can’t see him losing enough points unless there’s a crazy weather situation in both races (and lets face it, what’s the chance of rain in Abu Dhabi?)

      1. Rain is always a lottery. But ALO can be terrific in rain also. Watch Hungaroring 06′ first lap if in doubt.

    10. Still the drivers title is Red Bull to lose, they have the best F1 car, Webber just needs to finish both races in 1º place, he doesn´t need help from anyone.

      It can´t be that difficult unless Red Bull play it the hard way.

    11. Alonso is in the pound seat but Red Bull have the car advantage for the last 2 races,so if Webber wins in Brazil and Alonso is 3rd 1 point between them going to Abu Dhabi,now that would be dramatic final race but I think Webber will do it IF Vettel helps him out in both races.

    12. It’d be a real shame to have this brilliant season end in the penultimate round…

      What I would love to see, for the sake of the championship, is Vettel winning with Hamilton coming second, Webber fifth, and Alonso’s engine blowing up at the end of the race. Button, Rosberg and Kubica should take third and fourth places. This would leave Alonso and Vettel with 231 points, Webber with 230 and Hamilton with 228. In others words this would create a situation where the winner of Abu Dhabi would win the championship. What more could one ask for?

      1. Haha, we can but hope! Though you do seem to have three drivers taking two positions there

        1. I meant to say that someone else than Webber or Alonso should get P3 or P4.

    13. No body is shameful that Hamilton won the championship by 1 point in 2008 when Heiki Pulled Over At the Hairpin when he was in first place at the same race in Hockenheim. Major Obvious team orders. I think all you Ferrari and Alonso haters should be embarresed by you remarks towards this situation as your beloved Englishman And Cheating Mclaren Team are the most obvious wrong doers. I think most of these comments come from the English as it’s obvious they are very envious of Ferrari and Italy in General. Now that Alonso is there thats just the icing on the cake for these dumb comments.

      1. Although I agree with the initial point, however I don’t think the change of position was for the lead, regardless you’re point is fair.

        But, it’s a shame you spoilt the post with your closing commments… you’ve ruined what would have been a perfectly valid point.

        1. Great call.

          I’m amazed by the amount of people who bring up Germany as if no other team has done the same thing. Shouldnt there be an equal uproar that Button lost 7 points because of Turkey?

          1. Where were the “obvious” team orders there?

            I certainly don’t remember Massa and Alonso dicing for position beforehand.

            As I remember it, Hamilton was told that Button would not overtake, and that clearly wasn’t the case, and then they were told to back off to save fuel, and that clearly (judging by remaining tank contents) was the case.

      2. “I think most of these comments come from the English as it’s obvious they are very envious of Ferrari and Italy in General.”

        Most of the technology on your Ferrari’s came by way of “English” technical know-how. We still lead the world in that respect.

        As for “Major obvious team orders”, it didn’t seem to be too “obvious” at the time. I don’t seem to remember the gasps

        1. Most of the technology on your Ferrari’s came by way of “English” technical know-how. We still lead the world in that respect.

          Yeah, sure. That’s why Ferrari spied McLaren in 07, right? Oh, wait…

      3. I think most of these comments come from the English as it’s obvious they are very envious of Ferrari and Italy in General.

        STOP PRESS! Responding to your comment is someone who is both English, AND a Ferrari fan!

      4. M B, You are correct in respect of McLaren’s (sometimes blatant) use of team orders. We also know of their other transgressions. I’m a british Ferrari supporter but I’m unsure as to why you think the English are meant to envy Ferrari? Ferrari or Italy in general don’t envy the English and McLaren-there is nothing about them to envy!

    14. HounslowBusGarage
      3rd November 2010, 14:18

      Predicted Team Orders for this weekend.
      Massa is told to stay close behind Alonso and watch his back.
      Button is told to take out Alonso.
      Vettel is told to miss Webber and keep it on the track.
      Webber is told to miss everyone.

      1. Other than the Button order that all sounds plausible.

      2. You forgot: Kimi is to take out Sutil with a rally car if he is having a good race.

        1. COTD please!!!!

          oh I miss Kimi and his ice creams so much…

    15. The F1 Fanatic Championship Calculator is wrong. Example: ALO 1 first an 1 DNF, WEB 2 seconds. Aloso should be champion.
      The calculator ignores the 6 victories of Alonso.

      Drivers Points
      Webber 256
      Alonso 256

      1. My guess: the calculator is only good for points. The WDC order in case of equal points is not coded.

        1. The Championship Calculator has been updated to take finishing positions into account in the event of a tie. Read the text on the bottom of the page.

    16. Whats this so called ‘team order’ debate all about ??? Winge winge winge. Ooooh. I understand now. You’s are talking about that ‘subject’ that has been going on since the start of F1 !!

      Get over yourselves. Team orders has been and always will be part of F1. No matter what the rules said, say or are going to say in the future.

      Nobody likes them, we all disagree with them. But they will always be there, as long as there are more than one car in a team anyways.

      All I can say is, I hope the best driver of the year wins the WDC. And that is clearly Alonso !

      1. “All I can say is, I hope the best driver of the year wins the WDC. And that is clearly Alonso !”

        I wouldn’t go as far as to say “clearly”. He’s driven well, but has also made some very uncharacteristic errors. He’s about due another one…..

      2. Agreed

        I really think that deep inside nobody truly cares about TO, it’s just useful ammo for the Scuderia/ALO bashers. Nobody would give a hoot if, say, Force India used them.

        1. I really think that deep inside nobody truly cares about TO

          I don’t agree. In the aftermath of Hockenheim over three-quarters of people here believed Ferrari should have been penalised for using team orders. I do not believe that many of this site’s readers are “Scuderia/ALO bashers”, in your words. Especially given how Alonso’s doing in the “who do you want to win the title” poll.

          It’s really not that difficult to understand why so many people objected to seeing one team breaking a rule and getting away with it. I doubt it would make a difference if it were McLaren or Red Bull or anyone else robbing one of their drivers of a deserved victory.

    17. Younger Hamilton
      3rd November 2010, 23:21

      Hey guys looking at Lewis’s results in Brazil since being in F1 and i have to say its a pattern

      2007:7th
      2008:5th
      2009:3rd
      2010:Win???

      Its possible and it does look very interesting any comments anyone?

      1. Will be fun but I doubt that other people will let that happened.But only time will say.

      2. 2010: First
        And
        2011: -1. Ahead the Safety Car. 50 points.

    18. The main problem this season is that as all the title contender have used their 8th engine & we are not sure how much mileage is done with those each & as this is power track we may have a situation where this year’s WC can be decided over engine blow up until any of those 4 (I doubt that Button can make it ) make a big driving error & bang it with the walls which are very close in Interlagos.

    19. Regardless of whether or not they use team orders, it would be a mistake by RBR to do anything other than what they are currently doing now.

      If they said “We’re supporting Webber completely,” then it would be very clear that they actually were. If they don’t say anything, everyone works on the assumption that Vettel is no.1 and would be allowed to race against Webber…thus compromising their bid for the WDC.

      Don’t be so quick to criticise RBR for losing the championship due to not using team orders, they could actually be doing the opposite.

      Once the dust settles from Abu Dhabi, then you can start talking about it with all the facts.

      1. Well, if if goes VET-WEB-ALO in both races with the WDC for ALO we’ll really know that RBR didn’t use TO. And I’ll have the greatest laugh ever.

    20. OK, this is the dream finish to the 2010 Tournament:

      Interlagos: Button 1st, Hamilton 2nd, Webber 7th, Vettel 10th, Alonso DNF

      Abu Dhabi: Vettel 1st, Button 2nd, Webber 7th, Hamilton 8th, Alonso 10th.

      Then all 5 drivers will be tied on 232 points, and Fernando will win because he has 5 wins. What a finish would that be!!!

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