After a dominant start to 2011, is Red Bull’s position under threat?
The RB7s, which looked untouchable at the start of the season, have only won one of the last four races.
Red Bull were staggeringly quick at the Hungaroring last year, and this weekend’s race should give a sign how serious the threat from McLaren and Ferrari is.
Ferrari leading the chase
As Mark Webber admitted in the post-race press conference at the Nurburgring, Red Bull have been beaten “fair and square” in the last two races.
Fernando Alonso’s Silverstone victory was no fluke brought about by Sebastian Vettel’s problems in the pits.
The upgrades Ferrari introduced at Silverstone have paid off – following a re-calibration of their wind tunnel which they believe had led them astray. In the race, even when Vettel was in clear air, Alonso was pulling away from him.
Ferrari have performed particularly well on softer tyres – so this weekend’s allocation of Pirelli’s soft and super-soft tyres should suit their car.
The Scuderia are coming at Red Bull from all angles – even sharpening up their pit stops, an area where they were usually quicker than Red Bull at the Nurburgring.
McLaren’s fluctuating form
McLaren’s situation is harder to read – they have fluctuated in form dramatically in recent races.
Perhaps their Nurburgring performance was indicative of the progress they’ve made with the car – particularly its revised engine modes, which Lewis Hamilton cited as an improvement on Saturday. But they might just as well have been flattered by cool conditions which hampered their rivals.
Hamilton has good form here – two pole positions and two wins in four appearances – and if he carries his Nurburgring form into this weekend he will surely be a threat.
The clearest sign of a serious threat to Red Bull’s domination would be if anyone could knock them off pole position for the first time this year. Particularly at this circuit, where the RB6s were 1.2 seconds faster than their rivals last year.
Pole position has traditionally been a considerable advantage at the Hungaroring (though, surprisingly, the race has only been won once from pole position in the last four years).
While the new 2011 rules and tyres led to little improvement at another notorious overtaking-free zone – Valencia – will the picture be any different here?
Midfield contenders
Away from the battle for victory, Renault need to turn around their recent dip in form if they are to prevent Mercedes getting too far out of reach in the constructors’ championship.
The softer tyre mix may also play into the hands of another Ferrari-engined team – Sauber – who have used alternative strategies and fewer pit stops to score consistently in 2011.
Williams are desperately looking for some respite from an unrelentingly dreadful season with another wide-ranging upgrade package.
The new rear wing and revised suspension seen (but not raced) at the Nurburgring will be run again in practice. The team will also revert to using KERS having removed it at the last race in an attempt to reduce tyre degradation.
At Lotus, Jarno Trulli will take his car back from Karun Chandhok. He is expected to test further changes to his car’s steering in an attempt to help him get on top of the problems which have dogged him throughout the year.
Over to you
Who do you expect to be in the hunt for victory at the Hungaroring? Have your say in the comments.
Driver form in 2011
2011 Hungarian Grand Prix
Image © Red Bull/Getty images
Kiril Varbanov
27th July 2011, 9:58
Excellent thoughts. I think RBR will win at Hungary, mainly because the track is very well suited to their car, although I expect Alonso to put a serious pressure at them.
Should they be worried? Yes, because both Scuderia and Mclaren are not sleeping.
Didn’t RBR have flexi wings last year at Hungary or I’m mistaken?
Icthyes (@icthyes)
27th July 2011, 10:01
Yes, but so did Ferrari!
It’a a traction circuit and that suits the Renault engine very well, plus only one real straight to worry about your top speed on which hides Red Bull’s biggest weakness (drag). But Ferrari are good on the brakes too.
From what we’ve seen with the Red Bulls struggling in traffic, perhaps the other teams’ best options might be to focus on qualifying!
Adrian J
27th July 2011, 10:05
So we should expect Massa to be fueled light to give him pole from where he can hold up the RBR’s allowing Alonso past and then will have to drive fuel-saving laps towards the end of the race or retire completely…
I joke of course, but who else here thinks this isn’t quite as far-fetched as it at first sounds…!!
Icthyes (@icthyes)
27th July 2011, 10:16
Would not surprise me in the least!
Alex W
27th July 2011, 10:17
They should have done that at Abu Dhubai – Genius!!!
Alex W
27th July 2011, 10:18
Just remembered can’t do that, they are light in qualy.
Icthyes (@icthyes)
27th July 2011, 10:45
Oops, that was a pretty basic error from us!
Coefficient
27th July 2011, 12:15
Abu Dhubai? where’s that?
Alonso Fan
28th July 2011, 0:46
Mike
28th July 2011, 8:56
Is it near abba dabby? Legard used to talk about that place all the time… Ah the memories.
IceMan
27th July 2011, 10:55
Aren’t all cars fueled light for qualifying?
RIISE (@riise)
27th July 2011, 11:24
Oh dear….
King Six
27th July 2011, 11:51
They’re all on fumes when fighting for pole. No such thing as running lighter than someone else fuel-wise to get pole these days.
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 12:13
Ha, fun to see all of you cought out by pre refueling ban thinking there!
Robbie
27th July 2011, 12:58
The question being ‘Are Red Bull in trouble’? The short answer for me at first blush is that most teams in the past and on the grid now would envy the kind of ‘trouble’ Red Bull is in right now.
Unless we are prepared to now say FA’s Ferrari is THE car to beat, or LH’s Mac is, which I’m sure nobody is ready to say, then RB still sits with the best odds of having one or both cars on the front row and vying for the win…and failing that, they should still get big points. But FA or LH, or MW for that matter if he is allowed need chunks of points, not small increments, in order to catch up to SV. And given that it has been an SV show for the most part, ie. one driver being the target for everyone else, everyone else, namely MW, FA, and LH who are now stronger threats to SV are going to be splitting points amongst themselves, which is to SV’s advantage.
Lol, to me it’s almost like MW, FA, and LH need a ‘team(s) order’ that one of them and only one of them is to get the lion’s share of the points going forward as the only way one of them might catch SV and bring the WDC fight down to the last race.
Sean
27th July 2011, 15:56
Robbie – COTD. Exactly.
Except perhaps that the situation is so strong for Vettel that a “team orders” approach by MCL or FER would be a waste of “we haven’t used team orders TOO often” capital, which might be best saved till next year.
Icthyes (@icthyes)
27th July 2011, 16:00
I remember the 1997 Japanese Grand Prix, where they compromised Irvine buy putting him on a three-stop fuel load at the start. he overtook Villeneuve, held him up and Schumacher won the race. Of course JV was disqualified anyway for ignoring yellow flags in the warm-up, but it was a sneaky trick!
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
27th July 2011, 16:07
Depressing to think we could see that kind of nonsense again under the current rules, providing there’s someone cynical enough to do it.
kired35
27th July 2011, 19:37
Still, if Massa qualifies well enough they could still send him out half-fueled and presumably quick enough to interfere with any non-alonsos for half the race, before retiring, right? I mean it would be crazy, but there’s not really any rule against it, is there? wouldn’t make for good PR though.
Fixy (@)
27th July 2011, 17:24
Massa would just need to qualify ahead of Alonso, or, if Alonso qualifies very high, right behind him, and with his good starts pass some cars to be at least 2nd, that way he would have a good race, otherwise he’s condemned to suffer and finish last of the top 3 teams’ drivers.
Adam Tate (@adam-tate)
27th July 2011, 23:11
Not technically true, Massa has finished 5th for 3 races in a row now, meaning every time he finished ahead of another driver from the top 3 teams.
Chris Holland-Skinner (@kidchris92)
27th July 2011, 23:18
bearing in mind that for the last two races Button retired, he has finished last of the top three teams finishing drivers in the last two races.
Funkyf1 (@funkyf1)
27th July 2011, 15:30
Gotta ask the question…. Last year the RB6 was also slow in the speed trap, yet the Renault powered by the same engine has a great top speed.
That said the exceptional downforce of the RB7 is obviously where the sacrifice is made, I would of thought that Newey would have made some grounds on evening out the balance this year. Any thoughts?
Robbie
27th July 2011, 18:12
Lol, just in case I was misunderstood, I was jokingly saying (team(s)order) that MW’s side of the garage at Red Bull, FA’s side at Ferrari, and LH’s side at Mac almost need to collude now to agree that only one of them should be nominated to go after SV, because that is the only way one of them can catch him…ie. they won’t do it by taking points off each other, let alone their teammates taking points off them…
In terms of the actual math that we have right now, I believe that without team orders even being stated, MW may already have to give it up for SV and not take points away from him, same with FM to FA, same with JB to LH…ie. it’s getting pretty close to the point where without it even being said MW, FM, and JB need to take a different role for the sake of the team and it’s sponsors. But of course I am not suggesting they should go out and do an ‘Irvine’ and I would like to think the drivers that still have the WDC potential this year would not want to ‘win’ that way. They shouldn’t want that kind of help, but should just hope that their respective teammates don’t hinder them whenever possible.
Were SV not so far away and looking like he could easily increase or at least maintain that gap, I wouldn’t be saying this so early…certainly FM has to give it up for FA now and he(FM) should know it without it being stated…will they (Red Bull) try to see if MW can catch SV? I hope so but I doubt it at this point…and JB is not that far behind LH, but unfortunately for JB he isn’t looking as strong and therefore should not hinder LH…imho of course.
Adam Tate (@adam-tate)
27th July 2011, 23:20
My question is whether or not a team will pull a team orders situation like Ferrari did last year. What would a team do is say Button or Massa was leading at the end of a race with Webber in 2nd and either Alonso or Hamilton in 3rd? Would they want their guy to let the Redbull past in the hopes the other car could reel him in?
This is all speculative though. I hope this situation does arise, I would love to see all the drivers from the top teams score a win this year, this might be the only chance for Webber or Massa to do so. An unexpected winner this weekend in Hungary would just tickle me pink.
Chris Holland-Skinner (@kidchris92)
27th July 2011, 23:27
Adam, this will never happen as the difference between 1st and 2nd is 7pts. Lets say JB is 1st, MW 2nd and LH 3rd. If JB lets MW and LH through and LH still cant catch MW, LH drops 7pts to MW rather than just 3pts if the pair remained 2nd and 3rd. A swap of driver positions would only occur if the drivers were running one in front of the other.
pH (@ph)
27th July 2011, 19:55
The way I see it if you want some downforce, you have to stick some things in air’s way. Then it’s just a question of how far you want to go this way, RB opting to go further than others.
Icthyes (@icthyes)
27th July 2011, 9:58
will help them? Forgot to finish that one ;)
To be honest I’m not expecting anything other than a red Bull pole but a challenge for the win from Alonso. A podium for McLaren would be a fantastic result, not expecting anything more.
The one joker in the pack could be the temperatures again. It’s scheduled to be cold and rainy all week until Saturday and Sunday, when it will heat up, but not to balmy temperatures and there’ll be some broken cloud too. This may swing things back to McLaren, particularly given Hamilton’s pace in S1 at the Nurburgring.
Tough one to call.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
27th July 2011, 10:01
Was fixing that just as I saw your comment!
Todfod (@todfod)
27th July 2011, 11:15
Weather plays a very important role in this weekend’s GP. Hamilton’s only chance for a strong finish would be if Ferrari do not get the ideal warm and dry conditions. Red Bull are going to be strong on this track either ways, and I would be surprised if we got anything other than a Red Bull front row lockout in quali.
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 12:17
From what the weather is here right now, and judging from the reports some 600 km southeast from here I would guess it will be another weekend with rain falling on friday, maybe saturday as well and clouds hanging over the track to make everyone nervous.
JCost (@jcost)
27th July 2011, 16:01
McLaren “was in trouble” last weekend but they won the German GP so I will wait and see.
I’ve just checked Budapest weather forecast in Google and it seems like we’re going to have a wet Friday and dry Saturday, Sunday… not very hot though (16C-22C)
GameR_K (@gamer_k)
27th July 2011, 10:11
If VET is to seal the deal for WDC it has to be in Hungary. Spa and Monza and definetly not RBR favourite circuits. If the opponents can smell blood it will be over for RBR. As I had posted before, even if VET repeats WEB first 9 races for the remaining 9 races he only scores 340 points. But if AHM repeats VET’s streak he can score 338 points. VET and RBR cannot afford any DNFs or any non podium finishes.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
27th July 2011, 10:35
Trying to set a record for most acronyms in a comment, there? And what’s AHM?
GameR_K (@gamer_k)
27th July 2011, 10:42
Assistant Head Master? :( It was supposed to be HAM. Kinda too lazy to type the whole name. Besides I’m not the only one in this forum who uses this style
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
27th July 2011, 11:01
Ah I get it now.
That’s putting too much effort into being lazy for me! Especially now it’s required this whole extra explanation…
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 12:20
maybe we can help and find another few acronyms for non-podium-finish (NPF) and favourite circuits as FavCrts :-P
GameR_K (@gamer_k)
27th July 2011, 13:04
@Keith – Should have put it as ‘2lzy2typ’ :)
@BasCB – Favourite Circuit will be FC. And new additions to the list; MFD, MFT, MFC, MLFD, MLFT and MLFC.
Too bad KERS and DRS are already abbreviated.
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 13:56
I fear your next post will then read like an US defence report for acronyms. We will need a translator function to grasp them :-(
John H
27th July 2011, 18:52
AOTD
Tim
27th July 2011, 10:42
A typo of HAM?
bg
27th July 2011, 15:18
I thought it was Alonso Hamilton Mark…
GeeMac (@geemac)
27th July 2011, 10:18
I really hope Williams can turn it around. They are such an important part of F1 that we need them to be fighting at the sharp end again.
As an aside, Maldonado’s form guide makes for pretty appalling reading. Brother has to pull up his socks, or arrange for more money to be sent to Grove by PDVSA to develop the car…
Funkyf1 (@funkyf1)
27th July 2011, 15:18
They should of kept the Hulk, having a paid driver or floating the business has not helped them at all.
supernicebob (@supernicebob)
27th July 2011, 10:25
It’s a tough one to call isn’t it? Last year’s form clearly points towards Red Bull, but recent form backs Ferrari and McLaren.
Indeed the biggest question mark is over McLaren. I’d like to think that they have turned a corner toward more consistent and competitive performance, but I suspect those low temperatures did play into their hands.
Ferrari, and let’s be honest when most people refer to them it’s more accurate to say just Alonso, certainly have been right up there for several races now and should be in contention yet again.
It will be very interesting to see how Vettel comes back from a tough home race. If he can respond with a resounding win then that will probably answer a lot of questions surrounding him and more than likely put the championship to bed too. However, if Webber outpaces him again then it could show that things are beginning to get to him.
Bigbadderboom
27th July 2011, 10:47
I agree supernicebob, the biggest question of form is with McLaren. I do think there was an element of Ham out performing the car, but with Button having failed to finish the last 2 races it is difficult to gauge where they are in relation to the RB. It’s good for the season to see Vettel struggling. But still shows he has a way to go in maturing as a complete racer.
Raj
27th July 2011, 10:31
I think RedBull will be very dominant as had been case in last year. But everyone is saying in their preview quotes it is similar to Monaco or stng like that, then all top 3 can be hopeful. It can be seen from germany that in middle sector redbull ruled supreme. Ferrari bit behind & McLaren long way behind. If hungary is like germany middle sector, redbull may come very strong in quali, but in race it might be b/w redbull & alonso & McLaren (if they find stng extra as they found in germany)
Todfod (@todfod)
27th July 2011, 11:20
I dont think its similar to Monaco at all. At Monaco is a circuit that really highlights a driver’s skills, while Hungary is a circuit that highlights the strong aerodynamic package of a car.
Eric
28th July 2011, 8:55
It wouldn’t surprise me if there were similarities in terms of car setup. I would expect them to run as much downforce as they possibly can this weekend similar to Monaco. Its part of why I expect to see Red Bull waltz off into the distance this weekend. Hoping I’m wrong though.
AdrianMorse
27th July 2011, 10:33
I hope Jenson Button can be in the mix again, in addition to Hamilton and Fernando challenging the Red Bulls. JB has had some bad luck in the last two races, and last year he struggled badly with an uncompetitive McLaren, so a change in fortunes would be welcome for him.
Todfod (@todfod)
27th July 2011, 11:23
I’m hoping for the exact opposite. I think having JB in the mix does the WDC chase more harm than good. We have reached a point in the season where both Alonso and Hamilton would have to pull off miracles in every race to take the championship down to the last race. Having JB finish in front of either of them is just points wasted, as we all know that JB really isn’t capable enough to launch a serious threat on Vettel. However, if he takes points of Vettel, then it is always appreciated.
Patrickl
27th July 2011, 13:10
Button and Massa would need to be in the mix taking points away from Vettel, yet staying behind their respective team leaders.
Adam Tate (@adam-tate)
27th July 2011, 23:30
I’d love to see a season where Button and Massa outperformed their respective team leaders. I find them much more likeable, a shame cause I don’t think 2011 will be that year.
Todfod (@todfod)
28th July 2011, 6:34
I dont think we will eve have that year
McLarenFanJamm (@mclarenfanjamm)
27th July 2011, 10:40
I think this race will be an RBR victory, but not a walk-over. Expect pressure from Alonso. Temperatures are expected to be 24-26 celsius this weekend which I believe is going to hamper McLaren the same as they were in Valencia. 4th would be a good result for them this weekend.
suka (@suka)
27th July 2011, 10:41
I only hope the qualifying gap among the top 3-4 is not above .450s…
If we get 4 drivers withing 1.2s each -+.300s apart, then RBR is in trouble which I think will happen.
suka (@suka)
27th July 2011, 10:43
No matter the temperatures for Lewis, he will outperform again….not as good as in Germany but will be there abouts.
Eggry (@eggry)
27th July 2011, 10:45
even Alonso could not challenge to Red Bulls last year. But this year they are much closer than last year and we have DRS and new tyre. I expect another Red Bull pole becuase they are too good at this circuit but if anyone closer to him within 0.5 sec…Red Bulls will be really threated.
Mclaren’s performance in Germany was great but I don’t think they would be ahead of Ferrai in Hungary. but they have their chance if something happen considering Monaco. So I expect close fight between Ferrais and Red Bulls but also some room for Mclaren.
Actually I hope all Mclarens and Ferrais finish ahead of Red Bull…no Vettel :D
suka (@suka)
27th July 2011, 10:45
I suspect, RBR has begun new developments which should give us a few glithces on their car following races…brakes, kers, engine modes etc….
Eggry (@eggry)
27th July 2011, 11:00
It would be great for close fight though I don’t think likely :D
suka (@suka)
27th July 2011, 11:07
My another hope is in tyre use, they have been so well utilized by RBR and not so by McLarens and Ferraris.
I hope pirelli delivers soft and super soft for the rest of the season, Spa excepted.
AdrianMorse
27th July 2011, 10:48
I’m curious to know how the supersofts will hold up this weekend, and whether we get different tyre choices from different teams this time around, both in race and qualifying.
Previous outings of the super soft were atypical (Monaco, and a drying track in Canada), and I suspect the degradation of the super soft will be high enough that the prime tyre (i.e., the soft) will, for once, actually be the most-used tyre.
Also, will we see McLaren (and Hamilton in particular) choosing the softs in order to curb degradation at higher temperatures, with Ferrari maximizing use of the super soft?
Doance (@doance)
27th July 2011, 11:02
Vettel and Alonso first and second.
Bleeps_and_Tweaks (@bleeps_and_tweaks)
27th July 2011, 11:08
I think it will still be a very strong track for Red Bull, and they’re likely to get pole. But Alonso and the Mclaren’s were very strong in Monaco (another high downforce track), and the cooler temperatures could help Mclaren again as they did at the ‘Ring. I fancy Vettel to be back on form this weekend as well, but it would be great for the championship if he fell off the track somewhere during the race!
HK (@me4me)
27th July 2011, 11:33
Hoping for a Vettel win.
Can’t stand the people wishing for him not to finish, just because he has done a good job and is leading the WDC. Also hoping for Button to have a decent race, without trouble. Would also love to see a Alonso-Hamilton battle for 2nd or 3rd.
Ads21 (@ads21)
27th July 2011, 12:21
To be fair people all the neutrals want him to do badly purely because they want a title race, and it’s going to need a few bad races from Vettel for that to happen. Doesn’t mean people don’t recognise what a good job Vettel’s done this year.
NJB
27th July 2011, 12:30
I hope he doesn’t win because I find him extremely irritating.
GameR_K (@gamer_k)
27th July 2011, 12:56
Well get your quota of itch-guard ready :)
Lin1876 (@lin1876)
27th July 2011, 11:34
I can fully see a Red Bull on pole and on the top step. Ferrari close in the race and McLaren on their own behind. I can see one or maybe both Saubers into Q3 as the track and hot temperatures should suit them, and they’ve been impressive in the races. Remember KOB started 24th last year an made it into the points.
xabregas
27th July 2011, 11:55
I´m expecting RBR (as usual) on pole but with Webber charging and Hamilton, again, giving them a hard time. In the race, hopefully, it´ll be a 3 way battle ( RBR, Ferrari and Mclaren). The start of the race will be very important, if Vettel can´t get a big jump , he´ll be in the middle of a big mess coming turn 1 and he´s the one who has the most to lose, the others ( Hamilton, Alonso, Webber……) know that and their mode will be ” go for it”, after all they don´t have much to lose, instead everything to win.
Think i´m going to make my F1 Fanatic predictions after turn 1 eheheheh.
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 12:11
I do think Red Bull are now hauled in on race pace, and qualifying is not miles away. But McLaren themselves don’t even know what to expect and Ferrari are still far enough behind in the cornering to let Vettel do his thing, that is if he regrouped after home defeat.
To be honest, I have a feeling we will see Seb Vettel put it on pole again, and only wet weather (with temperatures in the 20 range) will keep him from another pole to flag victory, be it under pressure from the likes of Alonso, a McLaren and possibly Webber.
Coefficient
27th July 2011, 12:25
The Pirelli’s don’t like the long duration high speed corners as much as the Bridgestones did and RB7s massive downforce seems to chew them up in such conditions which means they can’t maintain their great pace throughout a stint.
Also, I believe the super soft and soft compounds whilst of the same name as those used earlier in the season are in fact of a new harder, more durable compound so Mclaren my not be as badly affected if it’s warm on race day.
I think this will bring Ferrari, Mclaren and Red Bull right together again as they were at Nurburgring.
AdrianMorse
27th July 2011, 12:50
As far as I know, the softs and super softs have not, and will not change this season. Pirelli were evaluating a harder soft in Germany, but they said it won’t be run this year.
Red Andy (@red-andy)
27th July 2011, 12:56
We will know how well McLaren will do when we hear their own assessment of how they expect the weekend to go.
If they are quiet, it means they will be successful.
If they are bullish, they will be poor.
Here’s hoping for some Woking-brand arrogance!
Dave Blanc
27th July 2011, 13:22
Interesting stats – the 2 redbulls are the only cars on the frid to have no DNFs so far this season. A couple of car problems for Vettel and we the championship battle could well and truly be back on….
antifia
27th July 2011, 13:23
One of the interesting features of F1 is the endless discussions about the relative strenghs of the cars on the grid. We have our favorite drivers and the name of the game is trying to show him as someone fighting with one hand tied to his back: the great hero that overcomes the limitations of his car when he wins; great hero kept from his deserved success by his car when he loses. And, of course, we do exactly the opposite with the ones that dare to compete against him. That brings me back to our current theme: If Redbull had two Mark Webbers in their driver line up, Lewis would be leading the championship with 4 victories, followed by Alonso with 3. Mark (one of them) would be third with 1 victory followed closely by Button with 2 wins. In those circunstances, people would be talking about a dominant Mclaren (6 wins out of 10 races) under pressure by an improving Ferrari (3 wins) with Redbull keeping close to them, but a clear third team – not dissimilar to the Lotuses in 86’and 87′. Great qualifying car, not so strong racer. As it happens, Vettel IS there and Redbull has 6 wins against 3 from Mclaren and 1 from Ferrari. Maybe Redbull has been the third strongest car all along and has been flattered by Vettel’s performance – see that in Germany Webber finished the race in the wherabouts of the place he has been finishing every race this year.
@HoHum (@hohum)
27th July 2011, 14:29
What if the other Webber had Vettels more reliable car, have you taken that into account.And yes I know, asking this question strengthens your thesis.
David A
27th July 2011, 15:57
Then he might have slightly better results, or just make Valencia/Melbourne/Korea 2010 style errors to throw away the title, considering what we have seen from him in the year he did have the most reliable car.
@HoHum (@hohum)
27th July 2011, 17:05
Webber has been pretty error free this year though.
Mads (@mads)
27th July 2011, 18:32
Like.. lets say. Every single start, to every single grand prix. He throws his grid position away all the time.
DaveW
27th July 2011, 15:24
This is an important perspective. But you don’t have to engage in hypotheticals to see that RBR’s famous car-advantage has a curious lack of substance. We were recently talking about an RB7 destined to be as dominant as the F2004. But the RB7 has only won 6/10 races to this point, and each loss was in a straight fight. It’s not a dominant car—-even measured by Vettel’s performance.
Going back to antifa’s analysis, the key to the success they do have is Vettel, and specifically, his qualifying performance.
We know that the RB7 can be beaten on Saturdays—Webber’s grid average is 3.8! If Vettel and/or the car loses the edge in qualifying, things will start to look much different. And looking at Germany qualifying, that may be soon. Vettel could easily be starting 3rd or 4th. And with the RB7 infamous troubles with turbulence and KERS, fighting from behind is not its strong suit.
In Hungary, I expect Webber to be on pole again. The qualifying map rule has been a boon for him. Also look out for Hamilton for pole. Hamilton’s nod to HPE was ominous. If the race performance was improved by mapping, then that will redound in qualifying too now, because of the new rule.
Unfortunately for Frozen Turkey, the new McLaren map and exhaust systems seem to have made the car very pointy—as Hamilton likes it—so Button will be in the background again.
Patrickl
27th July 2011, 15:39
If anything the new engine mapping should provide rear stability.
DaveW
27th July 2011, 19:11
Very true, in theory, but I’m going on Button’s comments in Germany that he could not get the car to work in sector 1 without lots of understeer—whereas Hamilton was actually the quickest car in the field in sector 1. The car seemed to want to go one way or the other in balance. And Button needs his car perfectly neutral.
Tom11
27th July 2011, 13:26
I think that this years championship will be identical to last years
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Webber
4. Hamilton
Webber will spend out the rest of his F1 career “Forever third” if this seasons anything to go by. He might even set the record for the most third placed finishings in one season.
rej
27th July 2011, 13:36
In germany hamilton has gone for a dry setup and button has done a wet setup. they took risk by doing extreme setups. RBR and ferrari done an intermediate set up.
McL pace in Hungary may not be great when all the three teams do identical configurations.
I think only ferrari can challenge RBR in Hungary if it is a dry race
Dave Blanc
27th July 2011, 13:46
Not true. All were on dry set ups.
tharris19
27th July 2011, 14:29
There were no wet setups in Germany. If there were the spread between the Mclaren, Ferrari and Red Bull would have been larger than what it was.
Button’s pace had nothing to do with a wet setup. He was having trouble getting the car balance right most of the weekend (Check out his Q3 time).
Jess
27th July 2011, 14:04
I dont see Red Bull loseing either championship this year. They may not win the rest of the rases but I for see Vetell to win and stay on the poduim for most of the races.
Johnny86
27th July 2011, 14:05
At germany alonso’s tyres were 15c off ambient temp. That would’ve accounted for .4-.5 sec. So if it doesnt rain and it isnt cold, expect ferrari to challenge Rbr in quali and outpace then in the race. Dont know abt VMM.
BasCB (@bascb)
27th July 2011, 14:07
But that same cold would have held the Red Bull back at least a bit as well.
FormulaVee#7 (@)
27th July 2011, 14:29
Do Red Bull have any major updates being introduced in the near future? It seems that everyone is moving forward except Red Bull. (Oh, and Williams too)
DaveW
27th July 2011, 15:42
They defininitly do. Unlike Lowe, Newey doesn’t bang on about how totally awesome their next exhaust/wing/whatever will be—and then strip it off the car in a panic come FP3 after it melts the car or the drivers have to veto it.
Yes, Lowe is testing stuff for future races, but history shows that this his approach does not pan out. Last year, all of this methodical work on the EBD and floors didn’t come good. They were still working on it in Suzuka, flying in last minute parts, still warping floors, and still not at the front.
tharris19
27th July 2011, 20:32
I could not agree with you more about McLaren; when they open their mouths things fall apart. Newey on the other hand, is so good he doesn’t have to boast.
Chris Holland-Skinner (@kidchris92)
27th July 2011, 20:23
RBR for pole, Alonso could maybe get on the front row. I’d expect 4-6 to be fought out by McLaren and Massa.
As for the race, I think Hamilton Button and Alonso will all be able to challenge RBR if tempretures are in the low to mid 20’s as currently expected, thanks to RBR overworking their tyres in high speed corners due to excessive downforce. In terms of the podium, pick any 3 from 5.
tharris19
27th July 2011, 20:39
I don’t think temperature will impact this race. I believe we will see the same kind race we saw in Germany but with the potential for a different results. If Seb wins pole let’s see how McLaren and Ferrari respond in the first stint.
All the drivers on RBR, McLaren, Ferrari teams have shown they can win this race. While pole may be fairly predictable, we could be in for a surprise on Sunday.
91jb12 (@91jb12)
27th July 2011, 21:56
I would expect the red bulls to lock out the front row in qualy. Webber is on a bit of a roll in qualy but Vettel has tended to be quick here in qualy (its the races here where it falls apart for him), so I’m going for a Vettel pole and then 70 laps of nail biting expecting something comical to go wrong.
i’d expect the usual suspects up there too and I’m expecting the 2 HRTs on the back row :)
themagicofspeed (@)
27th July 2011, 22:41
regarding the HRTs, it makes me laugh when on the BBC F1 quali report on race morning they say “and on the back row its the HRTs taking their usual spots” – makes me wonder why they bother.
daykind
27th July 2011, 22:05
If Red Bull don’t win, we could have a title on our hands…
daykind
27th July 2011, 22:06
In fact, I’ll rephrase that. If Vettel doesn’t win, we could have a title on our hands…
themagicofspeed (@)
27th July 2011, 22:39
i dont think red bull are in trouble, even if they do slip in form a little i dont think it will have too much of an impact – vettel has a frankly ridiculous lead in the championship, and if you were to bet on any team other than RBR winning the constructors, you’d probably be certified. i predict any slump they go through will find them finishing 2/3 to 6th at worst. vettel has done all the leg work early on, consistency alone could now guide him easily to the title, similar to how Button was in 2009 (winning 6 races in first half of season and being crap thereafter, although picking up regular points).
F1fan55
28th July 2011, 1:10
I expect the qualifying will be very important here- if Vettel qualifies first and Webber second, the dirty side of the track will mean that Webber will lose places to probably Hamilton and Alonso.
The best thing for the championship would probably be a Webber pole and Vettel second, as a defensive Vettel would lose places due to Hungary’s infamous dirty side of the grid (hopefully, so the championship can heaten up)
JohnBt
28th July 2011, 1:16
Another 3 way battle or even 4. We’ll be grateful if that happens like the ‘ring’.
My guess: 1st Alonso 2nd Webber 3rd Vettel
Jay
28th July 2011, 1:42
If Red Bull are well and truly in trouble, which I sincerely doubt, there is no better person that Alonso to put your money on.
He has been the most consistent driver over the past 5 races after Ferrari picked up the pieces, and I expect him to keep chipping away winning a few more races and getting on the podium regularly.
All we need is Vettel finishing 4th or 5th in a few races and things will look very different.
I cant say that Mclaren will be consistent. Their form has been very unpredictable and Lewis is a bit too erratic to pose a serious threat.
If anyone other than Vettel is to win the title this year, it will be the next most consistent driver…and as things stand its Alonso. Love him or hate him, you’ve got to admit, he is bloody good when it comes down to the crunch.
suka (@suka)
28th July 2011, 6:19
I agree Alonso is the most consistent point gatherer if I may say so but he also cracks when it matters the most.
As much as it was the pitwall’s fault at Abu Dhabi last year, I think Alonso was even more at fault for loosing his starting grid positio to Button even after being instructed to stay on the straight (clean)path which would take him to the front in the first corner. He did not listen….
wasiF1 (@wasif1)
28th July 2011, 2:30
It will be a very interesting race.Any news on the DRS zone?
GameR_K (@gamer_k)
28th July 2011, 8:00
Just a single DRS zone on the pit-straight, but don’t expect any straight forward passes. Lunges down the inside line like in Germany will do.
Luchiano
28th July 2011, 7:00
I would just love to see a good fight. Red Bulls x Ferraris x McLarens. A real dogfight. I think Alonso is more mature and will manage the strategy well and will get the victory. And Massa or Button ; please make life impossible to Vettel if the opportunity arises (use “team strategy”). whatever means necessary… :P Just saying
Go Checo !
qk
28th July 2011, 9:00
barcelona is an aero track not hungaroring
its a mixture of aero & mech grip
Lew for the win
PJ Tierney
28th July 2011, 9:46
I just hope that (if the battle for the podium is settled early) the TV director focuses on the climbs through the field that a “Q1 victim” will make. We’ve seen the 18th place driver make the points several times this season but you rarely see his fight through the field.
PJ Tierney
28th July 2011, 9:49
God forbid somebody try to DRS Schumacher this weekend ;)
Shimks
28th July 2011, 9:52
Cool preview. Thanks, Keith.
I think Hamilton and Alonso will be on fire between now and the end of the season.
Alonso’s been squeezing the maximum out of that Ferrari and now, with the upgrades, he’s getting some payback.
With Hamilton, I think it’s more a case of him squeezing the most out of the car but the car still isn’t that good.
Webber still doesn’t look like a main condender this year, despite having the machinery to be so.
As for Vettel, can he keep his motivation at the max. when he’s so far in the lead? I think it’s only human that he’ll sit back just a little bit. At least in comparison to HAM/ALO.
91jb12 (@91jb12)
28th July 2011, 10:45
motivation won’t be a problem. If you’re not excited about having a 77pt lead, you shouldn’t be in the sport.
He might be cautious if someone throws one up his inside, why risk a dumb crash and give his opponents even more of a sniff. last race he was poor but despite being 44s off the winner, he still only lost 3pts off the lead.
AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner)
28th July 2011, 22:07
I said it about Germany and I was wrong so hopefully i’ll be right with predicting RBR to snatch this one.
It will be an interesting race whatever the outcome. If anyone but Vettel takes it, the drivers and teams will only grow in confidence with a view to the title but if Vettel wins it be a case of he hasn’t bowed to pressure and can come from a drop in form to clinch a victory.