How Hamilton can win the title in Mexico

2017 Mexican Grand Prix

Posted on

| Written by

Lewis Hamilton said it was “silly” to consider the possibility of winning the world championship at the last round.

Sure enough, he didn’t. But his ninth win of the season means he is very likely to clinch his fourth world championship this weekend. Here’s what he needs to do.

Go ad-free for just £1 per month

>> Find out more and sign up

The only driver left who can stop Hamilton winning the championship is Sebastian Vettel. He is 66 points behind with 75 available to be won over the final rounds.

If Hamilton leaves Mexico with a lead of at least 50 points he will have won the world championship. The scenarios in which that could happen are highlighted blue in this table:

Hamilton’s finishing position
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th+/DNF
Vettel’s finishing position1st59565351494745434241
2nd73636058565452504948
3rd76696361595755535251
4th79726964626058565554
5th81747168646260585756
6th83767370686462605958
7th85787572706864626160
8th87807774727068646362
9th89827976747270686564
10th90838077757371696765
11th+/DNF9184817876747270686766

The key points to bear in mind on how the title might be decided are as follows:

  • If Vettel retires, Hamilton is champion
  • If Vettel finishes third or lower, Hamilton is champion
  • If Hamilton finishes fifth or higher, he is champion regardless of where Vettel finishes
  • If the race fails to reach three-quarter distance then half points will be awarded and Hamilton will become the champion regardless of whether he finishes or not.

The odds are therefore stacked heavily in Hamilton’s favour: 16 of the 17 races so far this year have produced results which, if repeated this weekend, would make Hamilton champion. The exceptions was Monaco, where Vettel led a one-two finish for Ferrari and Hamilton came seventh.

2017 Mexican Grand Prix

    Browse all Mexican Grand Prix articles

    Author information

    Keith Collantine
    Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

    Got a potential story, tip or enquiry? Find out more about RaceFans and contact us here.

    16 comments on “How Hamilton can win the title in Mexico”

    1. It’s over.

      1. As you can see from the article’s photo, Ferrari are deploying their secret weapon: Creepy Hamilton Cut-out Scarecrows. They are hoping that a few around the track will scare away any stray Hamilton that may try to approach the track. It just might work. It sure creeps me out!

      2. Lap 4 Hamilton’s engine gives up, saw it yesterday in my dream , dont worry guys , it’s not over !

        1. Problem is it’s over regardless, are we sure vettel would win the race assuming hamilton’s engine gives up? Even if he does, he still needs to win the others and if hamilton manages a 5th place in the other 2 he still wins!

          1. But anything could happen. Its also possible hamilton’s luck runs out and he retires in the next 3 races. Anything could happen in f1

            1. @f1fan-2000 keep hope alive..

    2. I’d play with Verstappen if I were him and fight for 4-5th position. Just for the entertainment.

    3. Just a side point, that I may have misunderstood… Surely if the Hungary result mentioned was repeated this would lead to Hamilton winning the WDC, with a 4th place finish to Vettel’s victory?

      1. Thats kind of an interesting point. Vettel/Ferrari used every dirty trick they had while Hamilton was the gentleman racer, and the results showed in the end.

      2. @ben-n You are obviously right. Only a repeat of the Monaco result that would mean that Hamilton does not win the Championship on Sunday – after all, he was 5th or better at all other races.

      3. Yes you’re right – have corrected that. Thanks!

    4. The Championship is truly over. Even if Hamilton DNFs on Sunday and Vettel wins – at next race, the same article could be written again. And even if Hamilton DNFs again and Vettel wins again, Hamilton has a third chance with exactly the same odds again.

      If Vettel wins all three remaining races, Hamilton needs 9 points from these three races. If Vettel wins twice and comes second once, Hamilton only needs 2 points from those three races.

      1. @mike-dee
        I know the championship is very very likely to be Hamilton’s but I don’t think we can say it is truly over. We just can’t predict the future. The Mercedes seems to have been very reliable this year but I remember at the start of 2015, Maldonado had Mercedes power and retired in all 6 out of 6 races at the start of the season. And none of them were related to crashes. Just the car or the engine. It is incredibly unlikely but I can’t say it is impossible that Hamilton will retire in all 3 races and Vettel will manage a couple of wins and a 2nd place.

        But no matter what I say, I don’t think that will happen! :D

        1. Honestly I hope every single word of your prediction happens :)

        2. @thegianthogweed The 2015 Mercedes Maldonado story you tell is not really accurate. He retired 5 times in the first 6 races, 3 times because of brake problems, once because of a collision, and once because of collision damage. So the Mercedes engine wasn’t even involved.

          I think it is wishful thinking that the championship will not be decided after Sunday.

          1. Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
            27th October 2017, 9:22

            He did retire all 6 times. He just was classified in one of them. But in all 6 of them, he didn’t cross the finish line. I may have been wrong about the engine in those races but he certainly did have several retirements later on in the season that was related to engine issues.

    Comments are closed.