Can Hamilton hold onto third in the championship?

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    Okay , Before you start screaming that Kimi is not competing ,let me just say I am aware of the fact and am quite grim about it. But hey , it was his decision , so let’s not bother about it . Now , for 3rd in WDC ,

    The current standings are as follows :
    3) Lewis : 187
    5)Webber :181
    6)Rosberg: 161

    Now for Brazil , I am assuming the world champion wins the race and continues his admirable run of setting as many records in f1 as there ever existed . Unless , this doesn’t happen , I am sure that Nico cannot get higher than 5th . ( Webber -not classified , Nico -1st ; meaning they are tied on points and Nico takes 4th with win %)
    Now for Webber and Lewis , It gets more interesting ( the only thing that is still interesting in 2013 standings ) .
    If Webber gets 2nd , his total becomes 199 points which means Lewis has to take fourth to tie ( I am assuming that a tie break will favor the driver with most wins,that being Lewis )
    If we get a repeat of COTA , and if Webber finishes 3rd , then his points tally becomes 196 , So Lewis will have to finish 5th atleast .
    Alternatively , I know that you Webber fans are getting frustrated with me , but yes , he has one last chance to do it in style . Win and throw all the analysis into the dustbin . And I would love to see that as well because it would be a fitting farewell.
    This is going to shape up as an interesting Battle . In fact more interesting than the WCC , now that Mercedes can’t falter unless they have a freak double DNF weekend . Can anyone help with the WCC scenario as to what are the possibilities and please write how you think things might pan out ?


    Iestyn Davies

    WDC – It’s definitely a very good battle for 3rd in the standings. Webber is likely to finish a few places ahead of Hamilton, making it very close at the death. Kimi clear in 5th, Rosberg pretty much tied in to 6th. Grosjean 7th, Massa 8th, Button 9th. Then it gets interesting again – Di Resta 48, Hulkenberg 47, Perez 41. All 3 drivers are also looking for a drive next year. After that, the only competition is really between Gutierrez and Bottas, who are on 6 and 4 points a piece. Gutierrez in particular could have had points without his penalty in Texas, so really needs another points finish to make a claim for a 2014 seat. But Vergne on 13 and Ricciardo on 19 are pretty much out of his reach you have to feel. With luck, Bottas could possibly beat him to the ‘Rookie of the Year’ title, which could be another interesting thread in its own right.

    WCC – I am sure Massa will be strong at Interlagos, so the momentum has to be with Ferrari to hold onto 3rd. Grosjean could well podium once more, but 2nd place puts them level on points with Ferrari. It’s hard to imagine Kovalainen outscoring both Ferraris combined, but it could be possible. Ferrari are 15 pts behind Mercedes, so if they have one car having a bad weekend again, the other car will need to get a decent points haul to outscore both Ferraris combined (Massa should score points at Interlagos). Lower down, really only a freak result will swap things around, something like Hulkenberg winning with both Force Indias crashing out in the rain. Oh wait, what happened last year….



    WDC – I think Webber is going to Brazil as favourite for securing 3rd. For Hamilton, there is a lot more scope for things to go wrong, as he is fighting many more drivers: Grosjean, both Nicos and both Ferraris (if Massa finds his home form again), and is pretty much guaranteed to be behind both Red Bulls to start with. Webber, on the other hand, is only fighting Vettel and Grosjean – and himself of course ;-) So if Vettel wins as expected, it is up to Hamilton to beat all his ‘direct’ competitors.

    WCC – Last year Ferrari finished second and third in Brazil, and I think the Interlagos is sufficiently atypical for the form book to be difficult to predict. Paul di Resta mentioned that for Interlagos you need traction and straightline speed, and Mercedes have not exactly been starring in those areas recently, so I don’t think the fight for 2nd in the constructors is by any means over.

    @fastiesty, I would certainly like to see at least one rain-affected race this year, and for Hulkenberg to win it. I think it’s certainly possible. The Sauber is in pretty good shape these days, and Hulkenberg’s most memorable moments have come at that track. All it takes is some rain and for Vettel to hit some kind of trouble.



    I am going to stick my neck out and predict that Webber will beat Vettel in Brazil. Mark has always been good around Interlagos, while Lewis tends to struggle around that circuit (I expect Nico to get the better of him next weekend).

    Long answer short, no, I do not believe that Lewis will get 3rd. Then again, anything can happen.

    The last time Lewis was top 3 in the standings going into the last race of the season was his WDC year in 2008, which is also the last year in which he finished there.



    I agree with @kingshark in that Webber can beat Vettel at Interlagos (if he gets a good start)
    Anything could happen in Brazil weather-wise, which also is a strong point for Button if it rainsto see if he can get a podium after what has been a poor year for McLaren.
    Heres what need to happen if Webber wants to finish 3rd

    -If he wins, he finishes 3rd in WDC guaranteed
    -If he finishes second, Hamilton must finish 5th or lower
    -If he finishes 3rd, Hamilton must finish 6th or lower
    -If he finishes 4th, Hamilton must finish 8th or Lower
    -If he finishes 5th, Hamilton Must finish 9th or lower
    -If he finishes 6th, Hamilton must finish 10th or lower

    I reckon Webber needs to finish at least in the Top 2 to look like finishing 3rd overall, we all saw Hamilton’s pace last year before he crashed out with Hulkenburg, who I reckon could jump into 9th if he finishes on the podium and Button finishes 10 or lower. Jean-Eric Vergne also likes wet conditions so look out for him in if the heavens open, and he could even knock off Ricciardo for 14th if Ricciardo’s history of dropping through the field.

    Also guys, do you reckon Red Bull could use Team Orders to help Webber clinch 3rd in the WDC if Hamilton does end up right up in a threatening position near the front?


    Lucas Wilson

    3rd in the drivers for Hamilton in 2013
    2nd in the constructors for Mercedes in 2013

    1st for Hamilton in drivers in 2014
    1st for Mercedes in the constructors in 2014



    Kingshark has a point, Hulkenberg is really strong at Interlagos and could get the better of Hamilton in this race…
    I am expecting Webber to get 3rd unfortunately. There is always the chance of faulty KERS or an alternator problem for Webber mind, if I’m clutching at straws. Hopefully we see some rain to mix it up a bit!



    @Lucas_Wilson amen:-)



    “Kingshark has a point, Hulkenberg is really strong at Interlagos and could get the better of Hamilton in this race…”

    Last year Hamilton was also very strong. He made a poor tyre choice but otherwise drove excellently. I don’t know if that’s because he finally clicked with the track, or maybe the weather helped him.



    Great points guys . Further I think Lewis likes the mixed conditions better compared to heavy rain . If it’s chucking it down , Jenson is the man . But wait , we don’t know how this year’s Mclaren will behave in the wet. Looks like Webber is the favorite , but things can happen quickly in Interlagos . Yes I am rooting for a storming drive for Hulk to impress everyone as long as it doesn’t end like last year :(.


    Juan Pablo Heidfeld

    I did some maths on excel and according to it, Webber will come 2nd (19% chance of retirement), Hamilton 5th (20% chance of retirement). Which would mean Webber finishes with 199 and Hamilton with 197



    You forgot one scenario:
    What would it take for Mercedes to take second in the WCC from Sebastian Vettel:

    If Vettel wins, he takes 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes second, he takes 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes third, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes fourth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-3rd for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes fifth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-4th or 2nd and 3rd for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes sixth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-5th or 2nd and 3rd for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes seventh, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-6th or 2nd and 3rd for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes eighth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-7th or 2nd and 3rd-4th for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes ninth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-8th or 2nd and 3rd-5th or 3rd and 4th for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes tenth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-9th or 2nd and 3rd-6th or 3rd and 4th for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.
    If Vettel finishes lower than tenth, Rosberg and Hamilton must finish 1st and 2nd-10th or 2nd and 3rd-6th or 3rd and 4th-5th for Mercedes to take 2nd in the WCC.



    “If Vettel wins”
    There is no ‘if’ my friend . 99.99% win for Vettel on current form . .001% is if hell breaks loose like last year . But I am looking forward to Brazil to see if someone apart from Grosjean can beat webber on merit ( Nobody likes a DNF) .
    @juan-pablo-heidfeld-1 Nice on the stats , I hope Lewis gets 4th which is realistically possible.Rosberg got podium because of Webber DNF in India . So podium is out of the Question for Merc unless something happens at the start . Can anybody shed light as to which car gets better in the wet ?
    @kingshark I know that Alonso and Vettel have better track record than Lewis in Interlagos , but Lewis was great there last year till Hulkenberg got too excited.


    Juan Pablo Heidfeld


    Thanks :)

    The stats I’ve made have it very close between Alonso, Hamilton and Rosberg, with Grosjean only a little way ahead. If it rains then no-one will know what will happen!



    Glad folks have noticed how close the battle for 3rd between Webber and Hamilton is, Sky were making it sound like Hamilton has sealed up 3rd but it is far from over!

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