Finale permutations

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    So with the finale, here are the standings

    New points
    Vettel – 273
    Alonso – 260

    13 points. 13 points in it. Alonso must outscore Vettel by 14 points. In the event that they end up even stevens on score – then Vettel wins the title because of winning more races.

    In order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH ON THE PODIUM, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 4

    Vettel will be champion if:
    – Vettel finishes in the top 4
    – Vettel finishes P5-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
    – Vettel P8-P9, Alonso finishes P3 or lower
    – Vettel finishes P10/DNFs, Alonso off the podium

    Alonso will be champion if:
    – Alonso wins, Vettel finishes P5 or lower
    – Alonso P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower
    – Alonso P3, Vettel finishes P10 or lower
    – If Alonso is off the podium, he CANNOT be champion.


    (I did the old money calculations just for the hell of it)
    Old points
    Vettel – 112
    Alonso – 106

    Same rules apply as above (if they end up same score, then Vettel becomes champion). Interestingly in old money Vettel is a lot closer to the title.

    In OLD MONEY, in order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH IN THE TOP 2, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 5

    Vettel will be champion if:
    – Vettel finishes in the top 5
    – Vettel finishes P6-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
    – Vettel finishes P8 or lower, Alonso finishes P3 or lower

    Alonso will be champion if:
    – Alonso wins, Vettel finshes P6 or lower
    – Alonso finishes P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower



    I think everyone need keep an eye on the weather for next Saturday/Sunday, it might be a key part of desciding the championship.

    This is a silly thing to say, but I think there is some advantage for Alonso over Vettel. He’s got nothing to loose and everything to gain, and a desperate foe is the most dangerous to face. Am I right in thinking Sebs not actually gone into the ultimate race of the year leading the title w/o having it won already. Its an almighty pressure to have on you, just ask Lewis.



    I don’t think the weather is too important to be honest. It’s easy to write off the Red Bull and say the Ferrari is the best wet car, but looking back I don’t think that’s the case. In Silverstone and Hockenheim the Red Bull almost made it to pole in the wet. Had Vettel not made his braking booboo into T6 in Hockenheim quail, he probably would’ve been on pole, even without the fresher tyres Alonso put on.



    Thanks for crunching the numbers, @raymondu999. However, I do think the weather remains an important factor. Some of Vettel’s weaker showings, at least in my opinion, have been wet/mixed weather races. In Malaysia 2012 and Spa 2010, Vettel made misjudgments that resulted in collisions with other drivers. In Germany 2011, he spun of his own accord. If it does rain at Interlagos, the balance could very well tilt in Alonso’s favour – after all, he did win this year’s German and Malaysian grands prix, both held in variable conditions.



    @bobthevulcan Spa 2010 was bad. But remember he also absolutely dominated Monza 2008, Korea 2010 and China 2009. Vettel was P4 in Malaysia – the loss of points was nothing to do with competitiveness.

    And Germany 2011 was bone dry.

    To say Vettel is weak in the wet – IMO – is illogical ;)

    In any case, Vettel has never lacked competitiveness in the wet, that’s for sure.



    @raymondu999 – I wouldn’t call Germany 2011 “bone dry” – there was light rain at the start that led to damp patches on the track, hence Vettel spun. And yes, Vettel’s 2008 Monza win (in the wet) was remarkably good. To say Vettel is “weak” is a poor choice of words; “error-prone” would be more suitable. I concede, most drivers become more error-prone in wet weather, but for reasons unknown, I tend to associate Vettel with this. And Alonso’s wet weather form is still rather telling.



    Absolutely massive for Alonso that Hamilton passed Vettel.

    A VET, HAM, ALO podium would have made the points:

    VET 260
    ALO 240

    Meaning Alonso would have had to win to have any chance at the title, and pray Vettel finished 8th or worse.

    But the way it played out leaves Alonso with many more options to win – as @raymondu999 explains above.



    @bobthevulcan I’m not convinced. Alonso’s days of being good in the wet are somewhat few and far between IMO. Other than this year – I only remember that Hungary race in 06, and after a fashion, possibly Nurburgring 07.



    The only times these permutations have happened this year so far were:

    – Malaysia: ALO 1, VET 11
    – Europe: ALO 1, VET DNF
    – Italy: ALO 3, VET DNF

    So based on that, there is a 16% chance that Alonso will be champion.

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