Renault's CC Position.
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I think Renault have been one of the best suprises of the season, although, I still question if they can realistically take 4th from Mercedes. Kubica like always, does a stunning job, although, with Petrov; Who does show some stormers from time to time… They can’t really expect to catch up to Mercedes, who can get both cars into the points on most occassions. :/
Your thoughts?
It all depends on how well Mercedes will perform on tracks at which the qualifying performance is not as significant – I’m thinking about Interlagos and Yas Marina in particular. I assume that Renault is stronger than Mercedes at the moment on ‘regular’ tracks (Monza, for instance, was an exception).
I expect Kubica to fight for top spots in Singapore – unfortunately I don’t see Petrov scoring. He has shown that he fails at street circuits; Monaco was a disaster and in Europe he was way behind Kubica. Considering that overtaking at Singapore is impossible, his chances are bleak with his qualifying pace. In fact, I think he has a high chance of crashing during qualifying or the race. On the other hand, I expect Mercedes to struggle. Their engine won’t be of any use there, and they’ve shown at Valencia that these kind of tracks don’t suit them. They should therefore drop out in Q2; perhaps Rosberg can just about bring the car at the end of top ten. Renault should make up around 8-15 points there.
Suzuka is a high-downforce circuit, and seeing as it’s Kubica’s favourite track, I think he might extract the absolute maximum from the car there. Mercedes should struggle more than Renault due to less downforce and Renault’s f-duct, which should be especially handy in S3. Alas I see Petrov struggling there and qualify low again. If Renault makes up 5-7 points that’d be good.
Korea is an unknown, so I’ll leave that out. Interlagos and Yas Marina are not so much about qualifying pace, so Rosberg and Schumacher could get home quite a bit of points. Renault should be slightly faster in Brazil and Yas Marina than Mercedes, but it all yet again depends on whether Petrov can get his act together and on how much quicker the French squad will really be.
In short – if Renault doesn’t capitalize on their advantage in Singapore and Suzuka, or if Petrov proves to cancel out the advantage that Kubica has over Rosberg and Schumacher in the last five races, they’ll end up fifth.
” He has shown that he fails at street circuits”
Actually last year in GP2 in the feature races I’m pretty sure he was P2 at Monaco and P1 at Valencia. He’s simply failing this year because he’s a rookie so when he makes mistakes and/or crashes he’s more likely to get punished.
I agree completely with your last paragraph in particular though!
There’s only 26 points between them? I think Renault can do it. Kubica could get a podium in Singapore, Brazil is always crazy and they should do ok at Suzuka. Rosberg said the car struggled in fast/medium speed corners so I don’t think they’re going to do that great, it’s more a question to see if they can cling on in theory I feel.
The problem is the craziness of this year and Petrov’s lack of experience on some tracks coming up. Merc may just cling on but Renault should work them very hard.
That’s exactly my point; Kubica does an amazing job, and on most occassions, Petrov isn’t there to back him up, points wise. Where as, both Mercedes’ are generally on the same pace, give or take a few races where Rosberg beats Schu by a significant margin.
Anyway, for Singapore, Mercedes are bringing their last update, so maybe they’ll be closer? I dunno, it’s too early to speculate, although Rosberg has always been mighty at Singapore. 2nd in 2008, and was going to finish on the Podium in 2009 if he didn’t have that drive through for cutting the Pit Lane exit.
Still, the Renault is likely to be quick, as you have said. Kubica was quick in Monaco, and Valencia, so here’s hoping…
31 points between them, and both Rosberg and Schumacher have been scoring points. Rosberg has more points that Kubica, and Schumacher a lot more than Petrov. I doubt Renault will catch them, as much as I would like them to.
Singapore could be a shot, Mercedes were poor both in Monaco and Valencia – while Kubica seems to find a good groove on street circuits.
I know and I agree the only bit I was picking on is the idea that he isn’t up to scratch on street circuits :P I agree with the rest though.
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