team battles: hamilton beating button & all other duels

This topic contains 2 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  magon4 5 years, 10 months ago.

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    i’ve crunched all of keiths wonderful numbers into a single comparison figure. it has quite a balance between qualifying performance (one-on-one and gap) and race performance (results, leading laps, points). this is what the numbers spit out:

    vettel 83×17 webber
    alonso 80×20 massa

    kovalainen 73×27 trulli
    glock 70×30 d’ambrosio
    rosberg 67×33 schumacher
    petrov 67×33 senna

    winning, but not by much:
    barrichello 60×40 maldonado
    hamilton 59×41 button
    buemi 57×43 alguersuari

    almost even:
    sutil 54×46 di resta
    kobayashi 51×49 perez
    ricciardo 51×49 liuzzi

    does this match your perception? i think some might be surprised or even disagree that hamilton is not at all inferior to button this season…



    I think that’s all fairly well-aligned with my perceptions, except for Hamilton/Button, which should be the other way round, and Rosberg/Schumacher, which should be a lot closer.

    How did you arrive at those numbers? I’m interested in the methodology.



    ok @estesark, i’ll use schumacher x rosberg as an example.

    i use qualifying results as a %: schumacher 2×14 rosberg, so 12.5% MSC and 87.5% ROS. that is weighted with 1.4. so 17.5 x 122.5 for rosberg.

    the average gap is added to the winning driver, divided by ten (so it can be worth up to 50 points or around 0.5 weight). rosberg has a firm gap, 0.327 seconds, so he gets 32.7 points added. so now its a whopping 17.5 x 155.2 for rosberg, after analyzing qualifying.

    the race results, one-on-one, are calculated like the qualifying, but with a slightly lighter weighting (1.2). it’s 6×6 between them, so 60×60 points.

    then the laps: rosberg has been in front of schumacher in 545 laps, against 258 where he has been behind. thats 68% for rosberg, but i actually just divide the number of laps in front by 15. that gives schumacher 17.2 points, rosberg 36.3 – so not too much weight on this, but rosberg now leads 96.3×77.2 in race issues.

    how to deal with the points might be the most difficult thing. i’ve decidided to give it a % of total points of the team and weighted it with 1.2 – teams with no points lead to an automatic 60×60 result in ths one. rosberg a slight 83×76 advantage (52% to 48%), giving rosberg 62.6 points, against schumachers 57.4. that totals 158.9 x 134.6 in races, which is relatively close.

    in total, it adds up to 314.1 points for rosberg and 152.1 for schumacher – in %, that is 67:33 for rosberg.

    basically, rosberg has a slight advantage in races and is beating the hell out of schumi in qualifying.

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