2008: Renault
Renault are one of the most fascinating propositions of 2008 for me. As Felipe Massa said yesterday, many expect them to struggle again in 2008:
If you have to take on Alonso it’s better that he’s driving for the French team than McLaren because it seems to me that Renault aren’t at the same level as McLaren.
That may be the case, but with two-times world champion Fernando Alonso back on board, surely they can expect at least one win this year?
It all depends on exactly how serious Renault’s loss of form last year was. In 2005, Ferrari failed to win a race (apart from the farcical event at Indianapolis), but bounce back in 2006 with a championship-contending car.
But Williams also failed to win a race in 2005, for the first time in five years. And that was the start of a slump they are still trying to pull themselves out of. Which of these scenarios best describes Renault? To a large extent that will be determined by what Alonso can do with them this year.
Alonso’s return
Is Alonso’s switch back to Renault the long-awaited return of the prodigal son, or a marriage of convenience as he eyes a future switch to Ferrari?
Alonso’s decision to leave Renault in the first place, which he took back in 2005, was partly due to uncertainty over the team’s long-term future in the sport. Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn later guaranteed the team would remain in F1, but with four titles now won followed by a dramatic downturn in form they might look at revising that decision.
Speculation has linked Alonso to a move to Ferrari as early as 2009 – regardless of Massa’s contract with the Italian team. If Alonso is only using Renault as a one-year stop-gap then finding long-term solutions to their problems might be out of the question.
Nelson Piquet Jnr – Another Hamilton?
Giancarlo Fisichella gave an explanation for why he felt Nelson Piquet Jnr had been chosen to partner Alonso:
Flavio [Briatore] has a love called Alonso. For what I gave I was counting on [a contract extension], and with Alonso we could have re-build the dream team from 2005 and 2006. Instead they chose Piquet: that’s politics.
Fisichella does have an axe to grind and perhaps he’s being a little cynical when he says Piquet was only picked for political reasons. Piquet ran Hamilton very close for the GP2 title in 2006 and might have won it with a bit more luck. He knows the score with Briatore and Alonso – but he’s not afraid of rocking the boat:
Flavio loves Fernando and it would be a stupid thing to do to get into a fight with him. But the day I have a chance to win a race, I will win a race.
I do think Renault might have compromised the quality of their driver line-up by not pairing Alonso with Heikki Kovalainen – but Piquet may yet prove me wrong. For his part, Alonso says he’s not worried:
I’m not afraid that Piquet is going to be a new Hamilton. In the end it’s up to me, I must be quicker than my teammate. I have total confidence in Renault and Flavio.
R28
Alonso has drawn comparisons with the position Renault are in now and 2004, when they were off the pace, started work early on their 2005 car, and ended up winning both championships. Renault cut their losses early in 2007 to start work on the R28.
Top of their list of priorities was making the car work better with the Bridgestone tyres (a major challenge as all their cars prior to the R27 had been designed for Michelins) and improving aerodynamic performance.
They’ve followed Ferrari’s lead by opting for a zero-keel front suspension layout. This has brought with it significant changes in front suspension geometry and the size and shape of the front wing.
The nose droops very low and is attached to the front wing by horizontal plans rather than vertical ones. It appears to be that way to increase the amount of downforce produced by the centre of the front wing and is reminiscent of Williams’ similar but far more radical front wing used in 2004.
Renault’s comprehensive re-working of the front of their car shows the lengths they are going to conquer the grip and consistency problems they faced last year. It may prove an all-or-nothing gamble that either suddenly clicks and sees them leap back to the front of the pack – or leaves them flummoxed for races on end before opting for a re-think.
As it stands, Alonso is not confident:
Right now, thinking coldly, reaching the podium is a dream. In our current shape it will be hard to make it into Q3.
More about Renault
Toncho said on 6th March 2008, 22:11
All the pieces they have been testing in Barcelona were good for nothing so they still have to improve, apparently they expect to be competitive in Barcelona so don’t expect too much for the three first races.
I know that a lot of people here is against the number one policy within teams but I reckon is the reasonable think to do if you want to win these days (see Ferrari last year). Anyway Nelsinho won’t be LH II as he is not as good.
FLIG said on 6th March 2008, 22:26
C’mon people. You are all being unfair, I think. The guy came from Minardi into a Renault side that no one would bet a penny on, and in two years he and the team made the car good enough to be world champion with it over the mega-winner Michael Schumacher in a Ferrari and current world champion Raikkonnen in a McLaren. Twice.
Pink Peril said on 6th March 2008, 22:44
The Roswelite – I hope that Alonso has learnt from the mistakes he made last year and has reduced his ego to a managable size again! That was his undoing – not any favouritism of Hamilton by McLaren.
I am not prepared to write Renault off yet. I realise I am in the minority on this forum in that I actually like Alonso and rate him as a driver. If he is not in the position to be winning – and the jury will be out on that for some time – then I expect some fantastic racing from him as he battles with the midfielders.
After all, remember Imola 2005 when Schumacher clearly had the faster car but could not get past Alonso? That was some of the best racing we had seen in a long time.
Only six days to go until the GP starts. My office overlooks the track and I was just over staring at it, can’t wait until the action begins !
Haplo said on 6th March 2008, 22:55
Almost as good as Sato doing the same to Alonso? No quite I think.
Besides, I am fairly certain that everyone here rates Alonso very good as a driver.
Gman said on 6th March 2008, 23:31
Although this will be my first season of viewing F1, I think it could be possible that Renault could pull out a win or two along the way, along with a handful of podiums in 2008. True, the car has not shown anything impressive yet, but when you put together a driver who is still in his prime, along with pieces that many of you mentioned (such as the pit crew), that team may turn in a better showing than some anticipate.
Alianora La Canta said on 6th March 2008, 23:55
I think Renault will be fourth in the championship, fighting with BMW and winning for the last ten races or so. However, Alonso will end up carrying the team unless there’s talent in Nelson Piquet Jr that hasn’t showed in testing yet – and I’m still somewhat worried that it’s all going to end in an intra-driver battle (though this time around Piquet Jr will be doing most of the moaning).
The end-of-year report card will probably say "Good, but could do better" as a result.
Chris Johnson said on 7th March 2008, 23:23
I’m convinced Alonso will win more than once this year. I’d love to see them take a super-aggressive, nothing-to-lose approach to each race, but the risks to their place in the championship outweigh the benefits. I’ll be surprised if they aren’t the third best team. If they’re not, how soon into the season will they bail out and concentrate on 2009, and will Alonso jump ship again?
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 8th March 2008, 10:32
With such a radical change to the rules coming for next year, and teams like Honda openly admitting their focus is on 2009, I think we’ll see a lot of teams taking that approach. Will Alonso leave? Only if he really has already got that Ferrari contract.