Tied at the top: Who will be champion?
7th July 2008, 12:30 by Keith Collantine 40 Comments »
It’s a three-way tie at the top of the F1 championship as the season passes its halfway point.
So which of the three drivers leading the F1 title race – Lewis Hamilton, Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen – will be leading come the season’s end?
Or will it be Robert Kubica, currently only two points adrift? Or someone else?
I still think the smart money is on Kimi Raikkonen to be champion. The Ferrari is, on balance, the faster car, and the team don’t make strategic blunders the likes of which we saw yesterday all that often.
Over the past three races Raikkonen has been right at the front but factors not entirely under his control have conspired again him: bad tyre choices (Silverstone), faulty exhausts (Magny-Cours) and kamikaze assaults from fellow championship rivals (Montreal).
On a normal day, in normal conditions, Raikkonen is still the man to beat.
Lewis Hamilton will be on a massive confidence high after yesterday’s result. If, from this point on, he cuts out the mistakes and drives like he did on Sunday every weekend, he will be a formidable championship opponent.
But even then, the McLaren-Mercedes MP4/23 is not as quick as a Ferrari F2008. Oh, and the constructors’ championship is Ferrari’s to lose. Which means Felipe Massa is at least as strong a championship contender as Hamilton.
Robert Kubica has done stunningly well to stay as close to the leaders this long, and until yesterday had barely put a wheel wrong all year. And you have to think that spinning out on shallow grooved tyres in heavy rain is among the more forgivable mistakes a driver can make.
Nonetheless BMW have increasingly looked off the pace of Ferrari and McLaren since Kubica’s breakthrough win at Montreal.
So, under normal conditions, I’d expect Raikkonen to hold onto his title. But we’ve had plenty of ‘abnormal’ races in the first half of the season, so why couldn’t that happen in the second half?
After all there are two unknown tracks yet to come, plus Fuji, which the teams have little to no experience of in dry conditions…
f1freak said on 7th July 2008, 13:07
ahhhh its really hard to say who is going to win…
i do agree with keith that due to some factors (kamikaze assaults from fellow championship rivals great explanation keith.. ha ha) kimi has not been able to pull off some good results. Concidering this, he would be quite eager to get in front of everybody in next races..plus he dont often make silly mistakes.. beside their wrong choice of tyres on silverstone..
i am a bit iffy about massa.. he doesnt seems to do well on tracks and conditions he dont like. If he manages to get over it he will do well perhaps not win the cahampionship but win the constructors championship for farrari…
as far as hamilton is concerned he will be willing to prove his critics wrong. but he tends to make quite a lot of silly mistakes under pressure and if he could avoid press as much as he can cuz he doesnt seems to handle it well (see post quali interview on itv he was trying to act COOL! which he was definately not). I would still think he might be able to nick the champonship altough i want kimi to win cuz lewis has quite a lot of time ahead of him and also cuz kimi worked his way up to being champion unlike lucky hamilton who got the top drive on the first season…but i do admire his talent not his personality.
I really want kubica to come up with something cuz i like his humble attitude compared to hamilton..he had a bad luck in silverstone..car wasnt great on quli’s either had some sort of problem..but maybe bmw are now concentrating on 09 sooooo… cant say anything…
p.s i was really happy for rubens and honda really really hope they can do something better next season. and these are just my personal comment, not trying to offend anyone
Sush said on 7th July 2008, 13:57
Saying Kimi worked his way up unlike hamilton is a contradiction, Kimi raced for Pete Sauber in two races, fell asleep then woke up crashing a Mclaren.
I’m going to the bookies this weekend, and placing a ten pound bet on Heidfield, ten on Kubica, and ten on BMW getting the championship.
Dizzy said on 7th July 2008, 14:11
I think Hamilton has no chances, unless we see storms in the next races or amazing car improvements. His car doesn’t have the same pace as Ferrari, and he doesn’t manage pressure very well, as proved last season. So I wouldn’t put my money on him.
Also, I don’t see the BMW winning a title at this stage.
So, for me, it’s about Kimi or Massa. I think Massa is faster, but less consistent and a joke in wet conditions. As a brazilian, I would say sadly that if Kimi can keep his motivation and have better luck, he will be the champion.
f1freak said on 7th July 2008, 15:25
fell asleep then woke up crashing a Mclaren.
nice comment…
Craig said on 7th July 2008, 15:39
Before Silverstone, I thought Hamilton had no chance whatsoever as the Ferraris would stroll off into the distance – however yesterday has blown it all wide-open.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lewis lifting the trophy, but Kimi is still probably favourite in my mind.
Massa has been much stronger this year than I expected and I would be pleasantly surprised if he managed to make it a 3-way fight right down to the wire.
For me, Kimi should just about do it and unless Heikki gets a bit more luck and drives a bit better then Ferrari will win the constructors pretty convincingly.
Dan M said on 7th July 2008, 15:43
Massa might be the worst wet driver in the history of F1… Kimi will have it secured with 2 races to go.
Kubica is the long shot, and people say “well its only half way through the season”, but had he not spun out yesterday he would probably be leading the championship. Who is to say that the next 9 races wont be as crazy as the first 9?
Sush said on 7th July 2008, 15:59
re Massa’s wet weather performance from the mouth of anthony davidson.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/motorsport-news/2008/07/07/british-f1-driver-anthony-davidson-furious-at-felipe-massa-86908-20634703/
“He’s always the first to stand up in a drivers’ meeting and complain about what people like me are doing when we get lapped.
“That’s what you get, mate.
There’s a bit of blue flag action for you. You’re rubbish. You are useless at it.”
John Beamer said on 7th July 2008, 16:47
Kimi is probably favourite but we talk about Kimi’s mistakes what about Lewis’ … Had he not hit Kimi in Canada he’d probably have won (heavier and faster than Raikkonen) … that screwed him for France … and also Malaysia was a shambles – McLaren botching a pitstop if I remember.
Michael K said on 7th July 2008, 16:48
Some of the main reasons that it is so close are the two rain races (lottery) and some strange events, like Hamilton crashing into Kimi and the exhaust breaking on his car. All of this has mostly kept Kimi from scoring points. I think it’ll come down to Kimi and Hamilton again and IF the rest of the season stays without incidents it should be Kimi who wins it again. But it is very good and nice to see that it is so close at the top, whatever the reasons are.
Robert McKay said on 7th July 2008, 16:49
It’s a great question, it really is. This season is turning out a classic because each race has it’s own strand of drama with it. Very few of the races have run fully to type.
If things eventually level off and calm down Kimi is the man, I agree there. What is amazing is that both Mclaren and Ferrari wobble perilously between glory and disaster each race. When it’s gone wrong for them both it’s really went wrong, such as Magny-Cours for Mclaren and Silverstone for Ferrari. They are both a bit like punch-drunk boxers, whichever one snaps out of it first and regains some consistency and reliability and most importantly good decision-making capabilities should go on to take the title, regardless of pace I feel.
That’s why BMW are still there – much more consistent. I think they are slowly dropping away from the pace but if they keep the consistency they aren’t going to drop away from the top 2 in the points tables whilst Mclaren and Ferrari keep having total brain fade weekends.
Clive said on 7th July 2008, 16:56
I like the way Sush thinks. That tenner on Heidfeld might just be the best investment you ever made, mate!
People keep saying that Hamilton makes mistakes under pressure – but has anyone been watching the Ferrari team? They make far more errors, sometimes even without pressure – and they are also the reason why Kimi won’t be champion this year. McLaren are quite good at fouling things up too and so we have to look at the third team. Hey, guess what, they don’t make mistakes and they have the most consistent driver and the best overtaker in the business working for them.
The Sush ain’t so silly, is he?
DanielPT said on 7th July 2008, 17:09
For me it’s Hamilton. Mclaren was on top in Silverstone even in dry sessions (with Kovalainen this time, who, in case of a dry race, would have won with Hamilton in second) showing a good improvement in their cars. True, Kimi/Ferrari is the best combination of driver/car but i would put my money on Hamilton. I must confess that i don’t like him due to his PR, like not admiting his mistakes, but like him or not the reality is that he is the fastest on rain by far, and on dry, at least faster than Massa and Kimi. If not, and this assuming Ferrari is the fastest car, why Hamilton can fight with them regularly?
donwatters said on 7th July 2008, 17:29
McKay is right. How in the world can you make a decision about who will win the championship when there have been so many unexpected mistakes. Now, if Kimi & Lewis (and Ferrari & McLaren) cleans up their acts, it’s probably going to be very close to the very end. If not, then you have to look at Clive’s favorite, BMW. All that said, I’m still not counting out Massa.
Dizzy said on 7th July 2008, 17:31
Guys, I complete understand the brit excitement over Hamilton, but the way he lost last season (with a superior car, I would say), does not make him a candidate for me. Also, it’s really sad to see him pretending that nothing affects him, that he can come over mistakes, his fake cool persona. Lewis’ father after the shock loss in 2007 saying: “We’re so happy with the season, he achieved a lot!”. What a lie!
I think that deep inside he is still a boy, scared with everything that is going on.
But I may be wrong…
As for Massa, he has the arrogance of Piquet Sr., without the fantastic driving though. I really want him to prove me wrong and win this title, but i don’t think he’ll do it.
Architrion said on 7th July 2008, 17:38
The only one who will win this season is Fred. He is the one most of the paddock is missing right now. There is a common feel that with the right car he would be leading this crazy-drivers champ with no opposition at all. He has earned his right to be driving a top car next year so far. IMHO.