Did 2010 meet our expectations? Pre- season predictions revisited

2010 F1 season review

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Bahrain, 2010

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Bahrain, 2010

Before the 2010 season began F1 Fanatic readers were invited to make 20 predictions about the year ahead.

Who fared best in this test of our clairvoyant skills? Well, it certainly wasn’t me!

Read on for the results.

1. What will be the best surprise?

I said: Lotus getting on the pace by the end of the season
You said: Lots of different suggestions for this one, quite a few tips for Williams and Lotus to do well

2. What will be the worst surprise?

I said: HRT not making it to the end of the season
You said: Again, lots of suggestions and a few people tipped HRT not to make it to the end of the year. Several suggestions that Schumacher wouldn’t see the season out too

3. Which driver will be replaced first?

Karun Chandhok, HRT, Monte-Carlo, 2010

Karun Chandhok, HRT, Monte-Carlo, 2010

I said: Jaime Alguersuari
You said: Jaime Alguersuari

The first driver out was Karun Chandhok, as picked by 11 people.

4. Who will he be replaced by?

I said: Daniel Ricciardo
You said: Nick Heidfeld and Paul di Resta were the most popular picks

Nobody picked the right answer, which was Sakon Yamamoto.

5. What will be the biggest political story?

I said: Plans for a new engine specification
You said: Budget caps and the 13th team were among the top picks

6. Jenson Button vs Lewis Hamilton

I said: Lewis Hamilton
You said: Lewis Hamilton

And Hamilton indeed had the upper hand – though how many would have guessed he would still be behind Jenson Button in the championship after seven races?

7. Felipe Massa vs Fernando Alonso

Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, Ferrari, Hockenheim, 2010

Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, Ferrari, Hockenheim, 2010

I said: Fernando Alonso
You said: Fernando Alonso

No question over this one either.

8. How many races will Michael Schumacher win?

I said: Six
You said: Two

The most popular pick for how many races Schumacher would win was two – only 12 people thought he’d end the year win-less.

9. Will Kimi R??ikk??nen announce a return to F1 in 2011?

I said: No
You said: No

And sure enough, Kimi R??ikk??nen isn’t coming back. But just what will he be doing in 2011?

10. Who will have the worst reliability?

I said: HRT
You said: HRT

HRT was the most popular choice, picked by 60 people. But Virgin, who were a close second with 54 votes, had the least reliable car.

11. Who will be the most impressive rookie?

Kamui Kobayashi, Sauber, Suzuka, 2010

Kamui Kobayashi, Sauber, Suzuka, 2010

I said: Nico H???lkenberg
You said: Nico H???lkenberg

H???lkenberg may have had that stunning pole position at Interlagos but it was Kamui Kobayashi – the second most popular choice – who amassed the most points in 2010 out of the newcomers (including himself and Jaime Alguersuari).

12. Which will be the most entertaining race?

I said: Canada
You said: Brazil

Before the season began Canada was the third most popular pick behind Brazil and Belgium. But it was voted the best race of the year during the season.

13. Who will set the most pole positions?

I said: Lewis Hamilton
You said: Lewis Hamilton

Sebastian Vettel set the most pole positions in 2010. He was the third most popular pick before the season began, behind Hamilton and Alonso.

14. Who will win the Monaco Grand Prix?

I said: Fernando Alonso
You said: Lewis Hamilton

Just two people correctly picked Mark Webber. If Alonso hadn’t shunted in third practice I bet I’d’ve got this one right…

15. Who will be the first retirement at Bahrain?

I said: Karun Chandhok
You said: Karun Chandhok

Poor Chandhok only made it as far as lap two in the Bahrain Grand Prix. By the end of the race he’d still done less than ten laps in the HRT all year.

16. Which will be the best new team?

I said: Lotus
You said: Lotus

Sure enough, Lotus were the best of the new teams.

17. At which race will the drivers? title be won?

I said: Brazil
You said: Abu Dhabi

Most people thought the drivers’ title would go down to the wire – pity I didn’t ask how many drivers would be in contention at that race!

18. Who will win the constructors? championship?

I said: Mercedes
You said: Ferrari

Eventual champions Red Bull were ranked a distant third behind Ferrari and McLaren.

19. Who will win the drivers? championship?

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Yas Marina, 2010

Sebastian Vettel, Red Bull, Yas Marina, 2010

I said: Michael Schumacher
You said: Fernando Alonso

Alonso certainly came close, but the less said about my prediction the better.

Vettel was the third choice behind Hamilton.

20. How many points will the winning driver score?

I said: 308
You said: 275 (average)

A particularly tricky question due to the new points system. Vettel scored 256 out of a potential maximum of 475. Only one person guessed this correctly – well done Ajokay!

Who got the most predictions right?

Unlike the F1 Fanatic Predictions Championship there are no prizes for this one, it’s just a bit of fun.

Still, congratulations to Angus who got ten answers right, more than anyone else! I managed a far less impressive five out of ten.

The questions Angus answered correctly were 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17, 18 and 19.

How did your 2010 predictions match up to the results? Check the original article here and have your say in the comments.

Thanks very much to Robert Boismier for counting up the predictions!

2010 F1 season review

Browse all 2010 F1 season review articles

Images ?? Red Bull/Getty images, Motioncompany, Ferrari spa, BMW Sauber F1 Team, Red Bull/Getty images

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30 comments on Did 2010 meet our expectations? Pre- season predictions revisited

  1. Lolz shows how unpredictable prognosis can be…. but the guy or girl with 10 correct answers must me a wizard ;-)

    To this end, I am not going to give prognosis for next season as I am obviously biased being a team supporter.

  2. HounslowBusGarage said on 18th December 2010, 12:56

    Keith, can you post a link to the original predictions thread because I’d love to read what we all predicted for question 5 -the biggest political story.
    I doubt if many people predicted team orders!

    • I actually thought, that the situation around the 13th team (and USF1) would be the biggest political issue.
      It was a bit of a bummer, but not really a big story, was it?
      There were some mentions of the tyre supplier being a story (correct), but no one tipped a controversy about team orders.

    • Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine) said on 18th December 2010, 15:35

      Yep, it’s in the last paragraph.

  3. Enigma (@enigma) said on 18th December 2010, 12:57

    Wasn’t Senna the first one to be replaced in Silverstone? Or is it the one who got replaced for good?

  4. Sush Meerkat said on 18th December 2010, 13:00

    I’d like to have this article as a permanent feature on top of the article listings, so next time anyone has a heated argument because a difference of opinion we can link to here and come to the realisation that we are all in fact, a bit pants!

  5. Fer no.65 (@fer-no65) said on 18th December 2010, 13:30

    You REALLY got everything related to MSC very wrong, Keith :P.


  6. Chippie said on 18th December 2010, 13:58

    9 out of 10! I correctly predicted:
    Chandhok being the first driver out
    Hamilton and Alonso beating their team-mates
    Schumacher winning nothing :)
    Raiikonen not coming back
    Kobayashi being top rookie
    Chandhock being the first to retire
    Lotus being best new team
    Title going down to the wire

    I also predicted Alonso to win the WDC with 263 points, so just to say I was super close!
    Darn! If Alonso had won the WDC I would have beaten Angus… Oh well, there’s always next year!


  7. this is why I like this site – thanks Keith! too bad wasn’t here since the beginning of season.

  8. Nathan Bradley said on 18th December 2010, 15:49

    Well, I got 6 right. Not good, but at least I beat Keith! :)

  9. My lot where avergaley wrong but i’d like to flag this up for spot on.

    11. Who will be the most impressive rookie (including Kamui Kobayashi and Jaime Alguersuari)?
    Kamui Kobayashi, will have the most memorable drive.

  10. ed24f1 (@ed24f1) said on 18th December 2010, 16:45

    Alonso vs. Webber at Monaco certainly would’ve been fascinating, but I think Webber would still have won – he was brilliant that weekend.

  11. Cornflakes said on 18th December 2010, 17:56

    Interesting how naive we all were about Red Bull. No one predicted what we saw. Interesting, since they were fighting for the championship with the Brawns last year, and they had a massive design head start with their car. I know who I’m putting my money on next year…

    • bosyber said on 18th December 2010, 18:29

      I guess we all figured Ferrari and McLaren to have properly adapted to the RB5, but we forgot to think of how big a step forward the RB6 would be even compared to the RB5.

  12. ajokay said on 18th December 2010, 18:05

    Blimey! How on earth did I manage that one? I don’t even remember predicting that!

  13. Robert said on 18th December 2010, 18:15

    I think it is interesting how many people, including me, thought Schumacher would win a couple of races. But, he ended the season as the only driver in the top four teams to not score a podium.

    Anyone have any suggestions for next year’s questions? Mine is: Which of the 2010 new teams will be first to score a point?

  14. With KERS coming back next year, look for more boring no passing …these cars are fast,but can’t pass

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