Ferrari look quick as wet race prospects decrease

2012 Brazilian Grand Prix Friday practice analysis

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Friday practice at Interlagos for the last Grand Prix of the season took place on a scorching hot track.

We all know that is going to change as a cold front is heading to the area. But exactly when it will arrive?

Although some have been quick to regurgitate reports of a “100% chance of rain on Sunday”, these weather systems can be volatile and it’s worth exercising a little patience when watching how they develop.

A close look at the weather front heading towards Sao Paulo now indicates the heavy rain which was expected to hit the track on Sunday may arrive much sooner.

The consequences? It could hit qualifying instead – or it might arrive too late. As for race day, that may now only see occasional light showers rather than the deluge originally forecast.

Either way, the conditions teams experienced in practice today will be quite different those they race and, most likely, qualify in.

Longest stint comparison

This chart shows all the drivers’ lap times (in seconds) during their longest unbroken stint:

https://www.racefans.net/charts/2012drivercolours.csv

1234567891011121314151617
Sebastian Vettel79.70280.00379.7880.27680.67279.52180.11580.30680.08880.02980.10980.127
Mark Webber80.10680.11379.92479.97880.09980.24580.29581.7280.17779.64279.75479.91480.06880.18380.522
Jenson Button79.94979.71979.76379.74579.59579.5880.18979.90279.76680.53780.17480.289.76479.765
Lewis Hamilton79.58781.21881.65879.62379.6581.12279.5179.50388.84679.12882.01979.3779.40182.14180.234
Fernando Alonso79.92979.95979.55379.59979.52579.94882.9279.58280.63579.826
Felipe Massa79.98179.33279.19385.32179.34279.03384.11179.23579.84179.7583.46879.46179.715
Michael Schumacher79.80979.58380.12280.0279.81379.94979.78385.86679.778
Nico Rosberg81.78280.22682.93779.57579.53886.5782.11979.72879.43379.64482.66379.604
Kimi Raikkonen79.75779.92280.2979.90980.07383.92880.60685.74280.16482.54582.36780.47380.51981.01480.762
Romain Grosjean79.8980.33880.02488.90879.63879.66179.53179.778
Paul di Resta79.87779.76780.96579.98580.10679.91280.39979.87680.05180.11679.95879.66882.33779.94979.932
Nico Hulkenberg8079.67279.61279.94779.71582.8979.74879.19479.42184.03779.43479.51780.32779.70579.86379.94680.378
Kamui Kobayashi80.2280.02380.20780.05180.03587.83980.13780.24580.37881.941
Sergio Perez80.11480.29880.18280.75385.99580.64780.37681.329
Daniel Ricciardo81.88981.25581.01381.09682.4581.56380.77280.94281.0481.02281.80882.211
Jean-Eric Vergne82.26281.86781.33981.21481.19581.17681.19581.11982.89181.72682.62783.727
Pastor Maldonado80.7480.480.11380.56280.59980.29680.46380.30780.16280.41180.91580.63880.807
Bruno Senna80.48680.88680.48680.60680.52384.19480.16180.23579.82679.82780.09880.22380.40880.6580.85480.863
Heikki Kovalainen80.36380.95381.05681.16980.43980.75580.8980.66580.80282.3181.706
Vitaly Petrov81.16681.21580.79780.57185.40880.56180.81981.48681.46184.76883.357
Pedro de la Rosa84.74382.09978.79478.639
Narain Karthikeyan78.31578.13982.58578.437
Timo Glock81.37281.51481.15281.51481.51682.1581.21381.40781.53581.6182.93883.627
Charles Pic82.87282.07181.67381.97682.00482.57781.90982.41685.48182.12782.22982.30382.29482.698

In the high heat Ferrari, whose dislike of cool conditions was amply demonstrated in America, looked more competitive. Felipe Massa said: “The tyres are the same, but their performance is completely different to what we saw in Austin last week: definitely degradation is much higher here and so I don’t think we will see a one-stop strategy.”

As well as edging Fernando Alonso on one-lap pace Massa’s race pace looked stronger too – though the usual caveat applies that we cannot be certain what their fuel loads or set-ups were.

Nonetheless during the stint Massa was told by race engineer Rob Smedley that he’d set the quickest lap of the high-fuel runners. At the same time Lewis Hamilton was told his effort was among the best.

“We’re certainly looking strong,” said Hamilton, “but this place can be so tough on tyres that it’s hard to make any accurate predictions at this stage.”

“The track and ambient temperatures were so high today that it felt almost as though I was sliding around the track with the tyres melting. Having said that, our long runs are usually tougher on the tyres [than shorter runs], but our long runs still looked quite good today.”

Sebastian Vettel’s stint times were approximate to Alonso’s. Team mate Mark Webber ran a longer stint. His tyres seemed to go off towards the end of it, but this may be less of a concern in cooler temperatures.

Sector times and ultimate lap times

CarDriverCarSector 1Sector 2Sector 3Ultimate lapGapDeficit to best
14Lewis HamiltonMcLaren-Mercedes18.880 (2)37.971 (1)17.170 (2)1’14.0210.005
21Sebastian VettelRed Bull-Renault18.851 (1)38.118 (2)17.331 (9)1’14.3000.2790.000
36Felipe MassaFerrari18.939 (7)38.211 (4)17.238 (4)1’14.3880.3670.165
45Fernando AlonsoFerrari18.933 (5)38.207 (3)17.277 (6)1’14.4170.3960.175
52Mark WebberRed Bull-Renault18.935 (6)38.221 (5)17.324 (8)1’14.4800.4590.043
67Michael SchumacherMercedes18.921 (4)38.333 (6)17.256 (5)1’14.5100.4890.144
78Nico RosbergMercedes18.915 (3)38.482 (8)17.158 (1)1’14.5550.5340.114
83Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Mercedes18.987 (8)38.637 (12)17.188 (3)1’14.8120.7910.051
910Romain GrosjeanLotus-Renault19.097 (10)38.352 (7)17.478 (14)1’14.9270.9060.067
1012Nico HulkenbergForce India-Mercedes19.013 (9)38.612 (11)17.410 (11)1’15.0351.0140.096
1111Paul di RestaForce India-Mercedes19.105 (11)38.720 (13)17.304 (7)1’15.1291.1080.000
129Kimi RaikkonenLotus-Renault19.179 (16)38.506 (9)17.576 (17)1’15.2611.2400.110
1315Sergio PerezSauber-Ferrari19.136 (13)38.610 (10)17.569 (16)1’15.3151.2940.227
1419Bruno SennaWilliams-Renault19.162 (14)38.722 (14)17.474 (13)1’15.3581.3370.074
1514Kamui KobayashiSauber-Ferrari19.168 (15)38.850 (15)17.726 (20)1’15.7441.7230.095
1616Daniel RicciardoToro Rosso-Ferrari19.193 (18)39.142 (18)17.428 (12)1’15.7631.7420.139
1718Pastor MaldonadoWilliams-Renault19.106 (12)39.081 (16)17.609 (18)1’15.7961.7750.157
1817Jean-Eric VergneToro Rosso-Ferrari19.189 (17)39.456 (19)17.403 (10)1’16.0482.0270.000
1921Vitaly PetrovCaterham-Renault19.279 (19)39.092 (17)17.693 (19)1’16.0642.0430.062
2020Heikki KovalainenCaterham-Renault19.356 (20)39.601 (20)17.535 (15)1’16.4922.4710.163
2122Pedro de la RosaHRT-Cosworth19.439 (21)39.852 (21)17.786 (21)1’17.0773.0560.000
2224Timo GlockMarussia-Cosworth19.671 (22)39.920 (22)18.084 (23)1’17.6753.6540.000
2323Narain KarthikeyanHRT-Cosworth19.682 (23)40.254 (23)17.924 (22)1’17.8603.8390.000
2425Charles PicMarussia-Cosworth19.740 (24)40.274 (24)18.113 (24)1’18.1274.1060.000

The Ferrari drivers were exceptionally close on their sectors. Massa reckoned he had more time in hand: “On my first lap with the mediums, I lost a few tenth at the second corner, so, in terms of an outright time, I could have done even better than fourth place.”

Complete practice times

PosDriverCarFP1FP2Total laps
1Lewis HamiltonMcLaren-Mercedes1’14.1311’14.02673
2Sebastian VettelRed Bull-Renault1’14.1401’14.30075
3Mark WebberRed Bull-Renault1’14.1981’14.52371
4Jenson ButtonMcLaren-Mercedes1’14.2171’14.86366
5Fernando AlonsoFerrari1’14.3921’14.59265
6Felipe MassaFerrari1’14.7161’14.55366
7Michael SchumacherMercedes1’15.1141’14.65472
8Nico RosbergMercedes1’16.3151’14.66976
9Romain GrosjeanLotus-Renault1’14.7191’14.99470
10Paul di RestaForce India-Mercedes1’14.7381’15.12973
11Pastor MaldonadoWilliams-Renault1’15.0151’15.95384
12Nico HulkenbergForce India-Mercedes1’15.0501’15.13172
13Kamui KobayashiSauber-Ferrari1’15.2551’15.83974
14Kimi RaikkonenLotus-Renault1’15.7011’15.37155
15Sergio PerezSauber-Ferrari1’15.3961’15.54267
16Valtteri BottasWilliams-Renault1’15.41323
17Bruno SennaWilliams-Renault1’15.43245
18Daniel RicciardoToro Rosso-Ferrari1’15.5871’15.90274
19Jean-Eric VergneToro Rosso-Ferrari1’16.0481’16.04875
20Vitaly PetrovCaterham-Renault1’16.6171’16.12669
21Giedo van der GardeCaterham-Renault1’16.46032
22Timo GlockMarussia-Cosworth1’16.5061’17.67573
23Heikki KovalainenCaterham-Renault1’16.65542
24Charles PicMarussia-Cosworth1’17.2341’18.12757
25Pedro de la RosaHRT-Cosworth1’17.6781’17.24430
26Narain KarthikeyanHRT-Cosworth1’17.8951’18.139

The McLaren drivers tried different set-ups with Jenson Button using a slimmer rear wing as he did at Spa-Francorchamps. This may prove ill-suited to wet conditions, and Button felt it had other drawbacks

“We were running a lower downforce set-up package to Lewis this afternoon. It was quite an interesting comparison, but, in the hot weather, lower downforce makes things trickier because the car slides more, which hurts the tyres.

“Still, it was a useful test, because we needed to see how well the smaller rear wing works. Obviously, it operates in a different way so we wanted to be able to understand that.

“Using the smaller rear wing, our long-run pace was surprisingly good. However, our single-lap pace wasn’t as strong – probably because we weren’t able to use DRS as fully as we could with the bigger wing.”

Speed trap

#DriverCarEngineMax speed (kph)Gap
13Jenson ButtonMcLarenMercedes321.9
215Sergio PerezSauberFerrari315.96
317Jean-Eric VergneToro RossoFerrari315.26.7
416Daniel RicciardoToro RossoFerrari314.57.4
57Michael SchumacherMercedesMercedes313.48.5
623Narain KarthikeyanHRTCosworth313.18.8
75Fernando AlonsoFerrariFerrari3138.9
86Felipe MassaFerrariFerrari312.79.2
98Nico RosbergMercedesMercedes312.69.3
1020Heikki KovalainenCaterhamRenault312.19.8
1122Pedro de la RosaHRTCosworth311.810.1
1211Paul di RestaForce IndiaMercedes311.510.4
1314Kamui KobayashiSauberFerrari311.510.4
1412Nico HulkenbergForce IndiaMercedes311.310.6
154Lewis HamiltonMcLarenMercedes31110.9
1621Vitaly PetrovCaterhamRenault31110.9
179Kimi RaikkonenLotusRenault309.412.5
1818Pastor MaldonadoWilliamsRenault30912.9
1919Bruno SennaWilliamsRenault308.613.3
2010Romain GrosjeanLotusRenault308.513.4
2124Timo GlockMarussiaCosworth308.313.6
221Sebastian VettelRed BullRenault308.113.8
232Mark WebberRed BullRenault307.614.3
2425Charles PicMarussiaCosworth303.318.6

There was a wide spread in straight-line speeds with the Red Bulls towards the bottom as usual. Button, with his low downforce rear wing, was quickest by a clear 6kph.

2012 Brazilian Grand Prix

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Images © Ferrari spa/Ercole Colombo, Red Bull/Getty images, McLaren/Hoch Zwei

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Keith Collantine
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54 comments on “Ferrari look quick as wet race prospects decrease”

  1. Maybe wet qualifying is better for Alonso than the race. If Vettel ruins qualifying and Alonso qualify well, things gonna be interesting.

    1. @eggry I agree – look how well wet qualifying worked for him in Britain and Germany.

      1. @eggry @keithcollantine Yes, this should suit Alonso – as far as his chances of getting a pole and having a less adventurous race is concerned. I mean, of course, without rain, he may have fewer surprises to worry about on sunday, having qualified at the front during a wet qualifying.

        On the other hand, I think a dry race, with its lower surprise factor, would also suit Vettel in that he himself would not have to deal with the chaos a heavy rain would provide. Thus, he could still most likely secure 2nd-4th without issues, leaving Alonso with no chance.

        On the top of this, we cannot take it guaranteed a wet Q will indeed be and advantage for Alonso this time – though it is likely it will do.

        All in all, I still think a massive chaos race with heavy rain is Alonso’s only chance – a Malaysian-like scenario. Of course, the likelihood of him getting caught in trouble would also be higher this way, but still – these are theo nly circumstances I see Vettel out of contention.

        …Or a mechanical failure. That would be cruel as it was on Schumacher in 2006 as well – twice.

    2. I seriously hope for that.

    3. @eggry remembering, of course, that Vettel started Hockenheim in P2…

      1. @raymondu999 of course I do! However still wet qualifying is better chance for Alonso and there would be room to spoil Vettel’s qualifying effort as well.

        1. @eggry I didn’t say you forgot.

          My point is – I think the Red Bull is an underrated wet car. Even with a big mistake and older tyres, Vettel was still lined up in P2.

          1. Exactly @raymondu999 (guess ur french), We could see the big mistake you’re talking about in ‘F1.com – germany onboard lap video’ and I bet Vettel lose around 1.5 second there, so he’s a massive driver in wet conditions, Monza 2008 weekend speaks for itself and himself.
            To me, the only way Alonso would win the Championship would be by an issue on Vettel’s car, anyway let’s the best wins!

          2. @jayfreese I’m not – but looking at my handle I can see why you guessed that in a way :P

    4. May Alonso not win by some bizzare weather luck. However, may the race AND qualy be a wet-yet-raceable track and may Alonso and Ferrari win ONLY bcoz they are the best combo of driver and car in wet racing conditions.
      Better never than by luck!

  2. This is the first time that Ferrari have actually looked good in practice since Monza. The new diffuser update has hopefully worked for them. I sincerely hope that they can fight for the win on merit alone here, again. Likewise, all Mclaren, Red Bull and Ferrari look good so if Alonso wins, there’s no guarantee that even without a misfortune, Vettel will finish in the top four.

    I know Vettel is still the favorite, but I am trying to pump some enthusiasm and interest in the build up to this race.

    1. @kingshark Yeah, before the weekend it looked like only unrealiability, rain or a crash can stop Vettel. But even in completely normal conditions, there must be a slight possibility of both Ferraris and both McLarens beating Vettel, mustn’t it? I really hope so :)

      1. I agree. This championship isn’t over yet. Vettel is still the favorite, but even without desperate need of unreliability, a crash or rain; Alonso still has a chance to win this – not as great as Vettel’s chances of course.

        1. If MAS , ALO . HAM , BUT qualify in no particular order but in front of vettel ….it could be good ….but sadly i don’t see that happening

    2. @Kingshark what’s changed on the diffuser? I’ve been scouring over photos and it looks exactly like the Austin diffuser to me.

      1. @raymondu999
        I think I might be mistaken there although I read on the Ferrari F2012 thread on Autosport, that this is the case and Ferrari do have a new diffuser. I have to re-check though.

        1. @kingshark I’ll have a sift through my photos of the weekend too. I don’t think they updated the diffuser from Austin.

  3. LoreMipsumdOtmElor
    23rd November 2012, 22:55

    Massa was on the softer compound during his longer stint, Alonso on the harder compound.

    1. Do you know which tyre Mclarens and Red Bulls used?

      1. LoreMipsumdOtmElor
        23rd November 2012, 23:01

        Sorry, don’t know. I just remembered Massa & Alonso. Had the practice running in the background without really watching it.

      2. I believe only Alonso ran on hards, every other front-runner ran on softs.

        Also note that Vettel and Alonso began their stints later and that Button will most probably change his set-up, based his statements.

        Still, fuel levels leave this all in blur. I would say, based on the Korean and the Indian GP Fridays, Red Bull tends to run their cars with a bit (0.2-0.3 secs) more fuel in FPs.

        I’m also not that excited by the encouraging Ferrari tempo. I mean after rain will struck – no matter if during a session or not – it will bring with it much lower temperatures, creating Austin-like conditions. It could well screw up set-ups and change the pecking order.

  4. Ferrari do look quick, but so do Red Bull. I have a feeling we’ll be in for an interesting race, but a dead championship fight.

    1. I partially agree. However, I believe that any exciting race with plenty of front runners could certainly build an tense championship fight, even in this scenario. For example, if the 6 leading cars are running very close within each other, I feel that the title fight will be in suspense, especially if Fred is ahead of Seb.

      1. I just think that the drivers who aren’t a part of the title fight – namely Hamilton – won’t care much for it if they get out front. I’m not saying Hamilton should move over and let his preferred champion elect through, but I think he’s going to value winning the race more than the championship fight.

  5. Redbull not as strong as expected. Hamilton and Massa looking fast. Should be interesting come qualifying.

  6. Is something wrong with the longest stint comparison? It says Narain Karthikeyan was fast on his longest stint. Is this a mistake, am I reading it wrong, or is it because their run was so short they were on low fuel?

    1. Nah, it’s just because HRT (I think) didn’t really do race like runs, so that is representative of their qually pace, not their race pace.

    2. I don’t know, but Karthikeyan’s best run was on the 2013 experimental Pirellis(marked T for Test). Which is strange, considering they won’t be there next year.

  7. Hamilton’s times are nowhere in comparison to 2010 and 2011 times.

    2011
    FP1
    Mark Webber – 1:13.811
    FP2
    Lewis Hamilton – 1:13.392

    2010
    FP1
    Sebastian Vettel -1:12.328
    FP2
    Sebastian Vettel – 1:11.968

    I guess this is either due to Pirelli’s conservative tyre choice or the cars naturally becoming slower due to the rule changes.

    1. Teams lost double diffuser and blown diffuser so cars are slower. But yes, drivers said Pirelli is slower than Bridgestome.

      1. Pirelli used soft and medium in last year’s race however this year they’ve gone for medium and hard.

        1. This year’s tyre compound is softer than last year so this year’s hard is more or less same to last year’s medium.

          1. Also, 620kg vs. 640kg.

    2. @hari

      I guess this is either due to Pirelli’s conservative tyre choice or the cars naturally becoming slower due to the rule changes.

      The heat probably played more of a role, many of the drivers said the track was slippery because of it in second practice.

      1. @keithcollantine) Yeah, I heard Hamilton saying that his tyres were melting because of which he was sliding.

  8. Bottas did a faster time in practice 1 than Senna did in practice 2…..interesting.

    1. I wouldn’t read too much into it. Maldonado was slower in P2 than P1 as well. Bottas was also doing a data collection run for the team, while Maldonado was preparing for the race. I would presume Senna was doing the same.

      I know they’re somewhat likely to be biased, but the Finnish newspaper Turun Sanomat says that Bottas is already “99.99% sure” of having a seat next year. Haven’t heard that anywhere else though, so I’m taking it with a pinch of salt.

    2. Not that interesting–Vettel, Webber, Button, Alonso and quite a few other drivers went slower in FP2 than their own times in FP1. I

    3. @blockwall2 I guess they could potentially have more reason to want Bottas to ‘prove’ himself? Or Senna was just running race simulations.

  9. Bring on the occasional light showers! They’re the best. Just enough rain to raise the question of an extra stop or two, and reward the skilful driver who keeps his head. I just hope our title decider isn’t run in dangerous or farcical lottery conditions, or started behind a safety car.

    Not sure what Lotus are doing – apart from maybe a rain dance. What’s the point being quick in sector two – you’ll never get past anyone there – and slow on the straights?

    1. According to history, Lotus has been very poor in wet. Maybe high downforce is their only way to make through. Opted for straight might be too slow in terms of lap time so it could make no difference when you can’t close to others.

  10. so if qualify on wets as the case maybe, then on race day it is dry what choice of tire are they aloud to start on???

    1. @lethalnz any tyre they want. Medium, hard, inter or wet.

      1. @raymondu999 how about parc ferme policy? I know when dry Q and wet R, change is allowed but how’s the opposite?

        1. @eggry when one is dry and one is wet, they’re only allowed to change:
          a) tyres
          b) blanking

          Nothing else. Setup stays. This goes for both wet/dry race/quali or dry/wet.

          1. Thanks. But teams can change more things during red flag right?

        2. @eggry if it’s a red flag after the race has started (as opposed to a delayed race start) then teams can change whatever they want – like how things were with Vettel starting in the pitlane.

  11. what happened at Silverstone? Remember?
    when the track was partly wet drivers knocked out some good times,
    as others waited hopping for it to clear, which it did not lost out.
    so i am getting my hopes up this time round McLaren can get it right this time.

  12. I think Ferrari’s times are more competitive than usual because of the high temperatures as Lewis mentioned. Today(Saturday) it will be 5 degrees colder and Sunday another 5 degrees minus. That is a huge difference from Friday to Sunday ~10deg. If this is the reason, FP3 will give more info about.
    About the rain chances, i think Quallify maybe see some drops but the most rain will fall in the night.

    1. Agreed, to a degree. Ferrari of late have seemingly been less able to inject heat into their tyres which hurt them in Austin – 2 seconds off the pace per lap in the opening laps. It would be interesting to see what happens in the rain.

      Some people are convinced that the Ferrari is still a rain demon – but a part of that was because it was so brutally treating its tyres to a sauna every race.

    2. I think that the times are closer because the track is shorter as well. With prospects of rain on Saturday night, it would not make much difference on which side of the track one will start the race. I still think Ferrari is better on wet tracks, but not that much as in the begging of the season. The heating tyre issue we saw in Austin was a one off, so I am expecting them to be as good as before in regard. But, as things are now, Vettel has apparently the greater advantage. Ferrari might put a fight, but surely they need more than that.

  13. Hulkenberg’s long stint looks very impressive , faster than the Redbulls, Button and Alonso…
    but maybe he was low on fuel .

  14. Interesting to see Lewis’ long run. He did a couple of cooldown laps and he was complaining about overheating in FP1. If the rain doesn’t come he might have some problems.

    Hulkenberg’s long run was very promising. Even Lotus and Mercedes seem to be closer to the front than in Austin. I don’t know if it is for the hot temperatures or because the top team had more fuel.

  15. I can`t understand why a lot of people seem to wish for a wet race. A wet race might very well take the excitement out of the race and title-fight completely.

    The last time we had a wet race this year Ferrari was fast, but so was Red Bull. The top team that struggled was McLaren. A lot of people seem to believe that nothing has changed since then and the pecking order will stay the same. I think the cars have changed a lot since then. At the time of the last wet race Ferrari had a problem making their tires last as long as many other teams, probably because they were generating a bit more heat in the tires than others. Todays Ferrari takes a long time generating heat into the tires, and that`s not something you wish for in cold rainy conditions.
    At the time of our last wet race Red Bull was struggling to get their tires to work especially in qualifying, but their race pace was good. Since then Red Bull has fixed this problem and is now probably the team able to get the tires working faster than anybody else on the grid. That`s a trait you would prefer on a cold, wet cirquit.

    McLarens car has changed a lot too, I`ll bet they would be competitive in wet conditions this time around too.

    I might be wrong and the rain tyres/intermediates might change the usual strenghts and weaknesses of different cars completely. But if this doesn`t happen then both Red Bull, McLaren and even some other teams might make their tires work much earlier than Ferrari. Then it might be over before it`s even begun.

    I much prefer a dry race to the end, let the best man and team win it..

Comments are closed.