Rosberg to lead charge against Williams while watching out for Hamilton

2014 Austrian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

Nico Rosberg, Mercedes, Red Bull Ring, 2014A surprising qualifying session has set up two fascinating storylines for the Austrian Grand Prix, both of which revolve around Nico Rosberg.

Starting third on the grid behind the two Williams drivers, Rosberg is Mercedes’ best hope to get in among them and challenge for victory.

But at the same time Rosberg’s championship aspirations require him to keep one eye fixed on his rear-view mirror to watch out for Lewis Hamilton. He will be out to stop his team mate from extending his point lead for the third race in a row.

The start

Rosberg’s best chance of extending his advantage over Hamilton is to do what his team mate did in China – make use of the traffic between him and the other Mercedes to build up a lead.

But before he can do that he’s going to need to pass the two Williams drivers. That won’t necessarily be straightforward, as they have been among the best starters in the field this year.

What’s more the Williams drivers have the same Mercedes engines and have been hitting the highest top speeds (see below). If he can’t clear them at the start, Rosberg may have to wait until later in the race, when the Mercedes’ superior tyre performance come into play.

The long straights of the first two sectors at the Red Bull Ring should invite plenty of opportunities for overtaking at the start. That will be especially vital for Hamilton as he tries to bring his team mate back in range after his disastrous run in Q3.

“The shot for the win will be very hard,” he admitted after failing to set a time in the top ten shoot-out, “so I guess it’s mainly a case of damage limitation”.

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Strategy

Felipe Massa, Williams, Red Bull Ring, 2014Valtteri Bottas is aware that it’s over the longer runs that Williams are most vulnerable to Mercedes.

“I think both of us, me and Felipe, we really need to just try and do the best we can, try and go as forward as possible after the first corner and the first lap and keep the position as long as possible,” he said after qualifying.

“We know that Mercedes’ race pace is going to be really really strong so it’s not going to be an easy day tomorrow but we will do our best.”

Tomorrow is expected to be the warmest day of the weekend so far, with air temperatures exceeding 25C. Given that, some drivers set up their cars with more of an eye on qualifying that the race – including Rosberg, who said he’s “worked more for the race” and not expected his car to be as difficult to handle in qualifying.

“Two stops is expected to be the most likely strategy,” said Pirelli motorsport director Paul Hembery, “but just as was the case in Canada some teams might try a one-stopper, depending on factors such as safety cars”.

As usual the ‘top ten tyre rule’ has failed to produce any variation in strategy between the front runners and everyone in the first five rows will start on the super-soft tyre. But one driver who made the other tyre work well in the last round was Jenson Button, who is the first driver on the grid with a free choice of compound.

“Being outside the top ten, we can run new tyres at the start of the race, and we can play with the strategy,” he said. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Button try to bring himself into contention by starting on the soft tyre.

A significant factor in tomorrow’s race will be how easy overtaking is, particularly with the addition of two DRS zones on a track where overtaking has been easier than at other venues.

“The DRS zones look interesting,” said Button. “Not having one at the exit of turn one looks like it’ll make racing more fun – now, you’ll have to make a move to overtake rather than just passing along the straights, which is what it should be about.”

Track limits remained a talking point during qualifying, with half the drivers having at least one of their lap times disallowed after running wide at turn eight. Expect to see the stewards wielding penalties against those who do the same in the race.

“Turn eight is tough in terms of track limits,” said Esteban Gutierrez, who was among the drivers to lose a lap.

“We did not have the penalty for exceeding the limits on Friday, but today and also for the race we will have it. When you push and get into the corner with a higher speed, it is a risk to go out of the track’s limits.”

Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1 Q2 (vs Q1) Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Felipe Massa Williams 1’10.292 1’09.239 (-1.053) 1’08.759 (-0.480)
2 Valtteri Bottas Williams 1’10.356 1’09.096 (-1.260) 1’08.846 (-0.250)
3 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’09.695 1’08.974 (-0.721) 1’08.944 (-0.030)
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 1’10.405 1’09.479 (-0.926) 1’09.285 (-0.194)
5 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’10.395 1’09.638 (-0.757) 1’09.466 (-0.172)
6 Kevin Magnussen McLaren 1’10.081 1’09.473 (-0.608) 1’09.515 (+0.042)
7 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso 1’09.678 1’09.490 (-0.188) 1’09.619 (+0.129)
8 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’10.285 1’09.657 (-0.628) 1’10.795 (+1.138)
9 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’09.514 1’09.092 (-0.422)
10 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 1’10.389 1’09.624 (-0.765)
11 Sergio Perez Force India 1’10.124 1’09.754 (-0.370)
12 Jenson Button McLaren 1’10.252 1’09.780 (-0.472)
13 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull 1’10.630 1’09.801 (-0.829)
14 Pastor Maldonado Lotus 1’10.821 1’09.939 (-0.882)
15 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso 1’10.161 1’10.073 (-0.088)
16 Romain Grosjean Lotus 1’10.461 1’10.642 (+0.181)
17 Adrian Sutil Sauber 1’10.825
18 Esteban Gutierrez Sauber 1’11.349
19 Jules Bianchi Marussia 1’11.412
20 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham 1’11.673
21 Max Chilton Marussia 1’11.775
22 Marcus Ericsson Caterham 1’12.673

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Felipe Massa 17.047 (3) 30.294 (2) 21.410 (4)
Valtteri Bottas 16.995 (2) 30.470 (5) 21.381 (3)
Nico Rosberg 17.060 (4) 30.400 (3) 21.296 (1)
Fernando Alonso 17.132 (8) 30.546 (7) 21.347 (2)
Daniel Ricciardo 17.390 (16) 30.522 (6) 21.463 (5)
Kevin Magnussen 17.140 (9) 30.434 (4) 21.714 (11)
Daniil Kvyat 17.174 (10) 30.683 (11) 21.479 (6)
Kimi Raikkonen 17.248 (11) 30.637 (9) 21.696 (10)
Lewis Hamilton 16.957 (1) 30.113 (1) 21.588 (7)
Nico Hulkenberg 17.091 (6) 30.665 (10) 21.830 (12)
Sergio Perez 17.092 (7) 30.632 (8) 21.835 (13)
Jenson Button 17.082 (5) 30.721 (12) 21.849 (14)
Sebastian Vettel 17.325 (12) 30.798 (14) 21.610 (8)
Pastor Maldonado 17.331 (13) 30.726 (13) 21.882 (15)
Jean-Eric Vergne 17.363 (14) 30.815 (15) 21.668 (9)
Romain Grosjean 17.429 (17) 30.987 (16) 21.946 (16)
Adrian Sutil 17.382 (15) 31.137 (17) 22.246 (18)
Esteban Gutierrez 17.548 (19) 31.303 (18) 22.440 (19)
Jules Bianchi 17.687 (21) 31.503 (20) 22.200 (17)
Kamui Kobayashi 17.611 (20) 31.449 (19) 22.613 (21)
Max Chilton 17.545 (18) 31.519 (21) 22.486 (20)
Marcus Ericsson 17.763 (22) 31.936 (22) 22.733 (22)

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Felipe Massa Williams Mercedes 327.5 (203.5)
2 Valtteri Bottas Williams Mercedes 323.1 (200.8) -4.4
3 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 322.7 (200.5) -4.8
4 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 321.4 (199.7) -6.1
5 Nico Hulkenberg Force India Mercedes 321.1 (199.5) -6.4
6 Jenson Button McLaren Mercedes 320.2 (199.0) -7.3
7 Nico Rosberg Mercedes Mercedes 320.0 (198.8) -7.5
8 Kevin Magnussen McLaren Mercedes 319.6 (198.6) -7.9
9 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 319.2 (198.3) -8.3
10 Jean-Eric Vergne Toro Rosso Renault 319.1 (198.3) -8.4
11 Fernando Alonso Ferrari Ferrari 317.3 (197.2) -10.2
12 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso Renault 317.1 (197.0) -10.4
13 Adrian Sutil Sauber Ferrari 315.5 (196.0) -12.0
14 Pastor Maldonado Lotus Renault 314.3 (195.3) -13.2
15 Esteban Gutierrez Sauber Ferrari 314.2 (195.2) -13.3
16 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull Renault 312.7 (194.3) -14.8
17 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull Renault 312.6 (194.2) -14.9
18 Kamui Kobayashi Caterham Renault 311.6 (193.6) -15.9
19 Romain Grosjean Lotus Renault 311.3 (193.4) -16.2
20 Max Chilton Marussia Ferrari 309.8 (192.5) -17.7
21 Jules Bianchi Marussia Ferrari 309.6 (192.4) -17.9
22 Marcus Ericsson Caterham Renault 309.2 (192.1) -18.3

Over to you

Can Williams keep the Mercedes drivers at bay – or will they be content to settle for their first podium of the year? And will Hamilton stop Rosberg adding to his points lead?

Share your views on the Austrian Grand Prix in the comments.

2014 Austrian Grand Prix

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Image © Daimler/Hoch Zwei, Pirelli/Hone

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31 comments on Rosberg to lead charge against Williams while watching out for Hamilton

  1. Oli Peacock (@olliekart) said on 21st June 2014, 19:27

    Hard to look past Hamiltons Purple S1 and S2 as an indicator of raw pace today

    • DaveD (@daved) said on 21st June 2014, 20:14

      Yeah, he clearly has great raw pace as always. But the way his rear came swinging around as soon as he hit the brakes in the third sector, it sure looked like they didn’t have that brake issue from Canada resolved yet. Or possibly they overcompensated and the KERS regen jumped in too hard and locked the wheels up. But SOMETHING looked wrong there.

      • AdrianMorse (@adrianmorse) said on 21st June 2014, 20:43

        There was no car failure, according to autosport, so it’s frustrating to see him squander this opportunity to put it one pole, and perhaps even put a car between himself and Rosberg.

        Instead, he will start back in P9 with all the first-lap risk that brings. I don’t think even victory is out of reach tomorrow, but he could just as easily crash out and hand the championship to Rosberg.

        • Patrick (@paeschli) said on 21st June 2014, 20:51

          I don’t see Hamilton winning tomorrow unless Rosberg has a DNF. Even finishing second will be hard for Lewis given Williams pace.

          • AdrianMorse (@adrianmorse) said on 21st June 2014, 21:05

            @paeschli, it’s not likely, but a first lap can change a lot. If Rosberg doesn’t pass the Williamses early on, then Hamilton might make his way onto his rear wing and there might be a race bewteen them.

    • HoHum (@hohum) said on 22nd June 2014, 1:48

      I do love a “do-or-die (thankfully no longer literally) racer” but it is clear that in the psychology stakes Rosberg is the winner and Hamilton is being forced into error after error. At years end it is likely that Lewis will have lost another WDC worth 10s of millions due to the failure of a spark-plug lead that probably cost less than a beer.

  2. Dan_the_McLaren_fan (@dan_the_mclaren_fan) said on 21st June 2014, 20:54

    The 8 Mercedes powered cars are the 8 fastest on a straight line : how impressive!

  3. Timothy Katz (@timothykatz) said on 21st June 2014, 21:17

    What will happen in the race if drivers exceed the track limits when they aren’t passing another car? Will it be a warning for doing it a couple of times and then a drive through?

    • Strontium (@strontium) said on 22nd June 2014, 0:01

      Something like that I imagine. Maybe similar to Massa’s penalty in Brazil, but it is more likely to be a 5 second timed pit stop penalty than a drive through. A drive through would definitely be a little extreme.

  4. Rick (@viscountviktor) said on 21st June 2014, 22:17

    Felipe has a massive margin on the speed trap! Looks good for passing, or defending from passes

  5. TdM (@tdm) said on 21st June 2014, 22:47

    Doesn’t Hamilton have free tyre choice as he didn’t set a time in Q3?

  6. HoHum (@hohum) said on 22nd June 2014, 1:55

    This is looking like the makings of a great race, unless of course you are a Ferrari or RBR fan.

  7. Funkyf1 (@funkyf1) said on 22nd June 2014, 2:36

    The last 5 Austrian GPs have been won by car #1 or #4. I’m rating Vettels chances higher than Max’s.

  8. greg-c (@greg-c) said on 22nd June 2014, 3:10

    Can Williams keep the Mercedes drivers at bay – or will they be content to settle for their first podium of the year? And will Hamilton stop Rosberg adding to his points lead?

    Well I think Rosberg will have a shot early and try and dissapear , Lewis will hang it all out kamakazi style on the hunt for podium points , Massa will crash and Bottas will over drive and back peddle , Ric will sneak up and be ready to pounce if mercs retire , vettle will get in there as long as his Windows 98 / renault software runs without a BSOD ,
    Bianchi for points !

    Over and out

  9. Kim Philby (@philby) said on 22nd June 2014, 10:16

    The only laptime I can’t put into context is Alonso’s. It is impressive that he is only 0.526 of pole position, I mean we know that the Ferrari engine sucks yet he beat all the renault powered and half the Mercedes powered teams. We also know that the F14T isn’t as good as the Mercs and the Bulls in generating downforce so we can’t say that sector 3 suited him. And last but not least he isn’t the best qualifier, what happened then?

  10. sato113 (@sato113) said on 22nd June 2014, 10:26

    Hamilton really camt hanfle.pressure it seems. Every lap was fat until the one that mattered. Granted he should be +50 points or so up right now due to dnfs…

  11. Strontium (@strontium) said on 22nd June 2014, 10:42

    Just realised (unless my calculations are horribly incorrect) that provided Sauber don’t beat them this race, Caterham need a 12th place to move ahead of Sauber in the championship battle. That’s not impossible.

    Also, I reckon there could well be a first corner collision here, with all the inexperience, etc. We haven’t seen a major one for a while.

  12. Sujeeth (@sjct83) said on 22nd June 2014, 11:10

    forceindia for a podium

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