How Hamilton could win 13 races but lose the title

2014 F1 season

Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg, Mercedes, Shanghai International Circuit, 2014Lewis Hamilton could win every race between now and the season finale at Abu Dhabi yet still lose the championship – due to the new double points rule.

With twice as many points being awarded at the final race of the year Hamilton could end the season with thirteen wins to Nico Rosberg’s five yet still be outscored by his team mate.

It would mean Hamilton winning all bar six of this year’s nineteen rounds, yet not being awarded the title.

The scenario it is not entirely far-fetched. Mercedes have had a significant performance advantage over their rivals in the first half of the season and have already scored six one-two finishes in the first ten races.

That included a run of four races where Hamilton won and Rosberg finished second. But even if that were to happen again twice over the coming rounds, victory for Rosberg in the double points finale would still secure him the championship, providing Hamilton finished lower than eighth or retired.

Here’s how the final points table would look in that scenario:

Driver Aus Mal Bah Chi Spa Mon Can Aut Gbr Ger Hun Bel Ita Sin Jap Rus USA Bra Abu Total
Nico Rosberg 25 18 18 18 18 25 18 25 0 25 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 50 384
Lewis Hamilton 0 25 25 25 25 18 0 18 25 15 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 4 380

This situation could only occur because of the double points rule. Without it, given these same finishing positions, Hamilton would head to Abu Dhabi already champion on 376 points to Rosberg’s 334. Instead he would be left worrying that a piece of ill-timed misfortune might deny him the title, as his team mate claims the only 50-point race win of the year.

As it stands Hamilton needs to do more than just win races to increase his chance of winning the championship – he badly needs Rosberg to finish further down the running order. That’s not likely to happen without some misfortune on his team mate’s part.

It also means the chances are rising that the hugely unpopular double points rules will end up deciding the outcome of the championship.

Bernie Ecclestone’s plan to award double points at the final race was strongly criticised by fans when it was announced last year. In a recent F1 Fanatic poll 96% of readers opposed it.

Work out how the championship could be decided using the F1 Fanatic Points Calculator:

2014 F1 season


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182 comments on How Hamilton could win 13 races but lose the title

  1. Pete said on 22nd July 2014, 19:21

    I think the only way we can take back formula 1 for the purists is to make the cars run round unsafe circuits so we have at least 3 serious injuries a season. Bring back Screaming loud engines that compulsory have to blow up at least 3 times season. Bring in teams who have a £100 budget who run 15 secs a lap slower than the leaders. Take away fuel moniters so cars run round for entire grand prix just to run out of fuel on the last lap. We can have an hours highlight package of the race only on a sunday tea time perhaps Mr Walker can come out of retirement to host it. Catch Fencing would also be a good thing to bring back wouldn’t it. I would be interested if there was anything else we can bring back to make the racing pure like good ol’ days.

  2. Bullfrog (@bullfrog) said on 22nd July 2014, 19:46

    I think the Mercs will break down a few times and stop that happening. I predict another Red Bull win, and one for Bottas…

    And that many wins for one driver wouldn’t be allowed. It would be Bad For The Show. There’d be all kinds of rule-meddling like FRICs and worse to prevent it happening. Sorry to be cynical but the Vettelsome end of 2014 won’t be allowed to happen again because there must be a Country Bear Jamboree to finish the season and “Thanks Bernie!” written in lights on the side of the Abu Dhabi Fun Palace.

  3. Eric (@) said on 22nd July 2014, 20:13

    I’m sorry to be a negative nancy here but what exactly is the point of this article?

    We all fully understand the effect Abu Double can have. I assume most of us know how to add and use other basic math equations.

    We are (almost) all fully against it as well so this can’t be a way to try and convince the masses that do support the rule.

    And Hamilton isn’t going to win every race from now on. Why? Because Rosberg has already managed to win 4 races himself. There’s absolutely no sign Hamilton will dominate Rosberg in the remainder of the season. So it isn’t be a ‘Hamilton deserves it the most’ kind of bull…. article. Is it?

  4. mateuss (@mateuss) said on 22nd July 2014, 21:09

    That this is a possibility was clear from the start, that is part of what I wrote in my letters to F1 teams.

  5. Bleu (@bleu) said on 22nd July 2014, 22:08

    The championship is one thing but I looked on every season from 1992. On the quick look, only years where top 10 would have been intact were 1996, 2001, 2002 and 2011. Of those, 2002 would have had small change overall thanks to Sato.

  6. sato113 (@sato113) said on 22nd July 2014, 22:37

    If hamilton wins the WDC due to double points, I will be happy as it’d make up for all the bad luck he’s had this year.

  7. Kingshark (@kingshark) said on 22nd July 2014, 22:54

    Hamilton wont beat Rosberg around Singapore.

  8. Nick (@npf1) said on 22nd July 2014, 23:10

    Guess future articles about double points should include every possible scenario for every driver just to not hurt some people’s feelings!

  9. evered7 (@evered7) said on 22nd July 2014, 23:21

    So I take it that everyone will be outraged and distraught if Hamilton wins the WDC by winning the AD GP even after trailing into the last race by more than 8 points.

    Or is the feeling only if Nico wins that way? :)

  10. OEL F1 (@oel-f1) said on 22nd July 2014, 23:49

    I have a question about the double point rule, since if two or more drivers are tied at the same point, their best result is deciding. And if their best result is the same the number of times they have achieved it will decide it. So say, if Hamilton and Rosberg will be tied on points and Rosberg has won 9 races and Hamilton has won 8 including Abu Dhabi, will Hamilton’s Abu Dhabi win count twice so that he’ll equal Rosberg’s number of wins or will it be counted like a normal win?

  11. teamorders said on 23rd July 2014, 0:51

    Double points has nothing to do with it. Reliability and the relative small amount of extra points for 1st vs. 2nd is what potentially causes this problem. Under the old 10-6-4-3-2-1 system this wouldn’t happen; double points or not.

  12. Maciek (@maciek) said on 23rd July 2014, 2:19

    I think we’re all agreed that double points is plain dumb, but, as a point of discussion, the projection seems awfully premature.

  13. David (@ringridder) said on 23rd July 2014, 6:11

    “providing Hamilton finished lower than eighth or retired.” – should be ninth, as he too will get double points ;-)

  14. Kanil (@kanil) said on 23rd July 2014, 8:19

    And if we didn’t have double points, Hamilton could still lose the championship with 12 victories to Rosberg’s 4. Not exactly a huge change in the numbers.

    This is more due to Mercedes dominance than it is due to double points — retirements take several race wins to make up for when your teammate/rival is never finishing worse than second.

    While I agree that double points are awful, this isn’t really a compelling argument why.

  15. F1Rollout (@f1rollout) said on 23rd July 2014, 11:23

    I am OK with double points as far as the driver performance is the deciding factor in the outcome of the race because its same for both Rosberg and Hamilton. O fcourse if it will be decided based on the reliability, then its a shame. We can just hope that double points don’t make a significant contribution in the outcome of the WDC and ditch this idea for the next season.

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