Red Bull’s split strategy strengthens their chances against Rosberg

2016 Belgian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

Posted on

| Written by

Mercedes may have taken yet another pole position as was widely expected at the Belgian Grand Prix, but the race promises to be one of the most open encounters of the year so far.

While Nico Rosberg strives to single-handedly fend off Ferrari and Red Bull, Lewis Hamilton will be on a charge forward from the back row following his power unit change penalty.

Not for the first time this year Mercedes found it difficult to get the best out of the super-soft tyre during qualifying. Rosberg nonetheless took pole position but he will have a fight on his hands to hold onto the lead when the lights go out.

Ferrari may be a force in the race
The tricky manual starts required by the rules this year has meant out of the ten standing starts we’ve had so far the pole sitter has only been leading at the end of lap one three times. Rosberg lost the lead from pole in the last two races.

At Spa he will start on the soft tyres while Max Verstappen alongside him has the grippier super-softs. Those should give him an advantage off the line and going through Eau Rouge for the first time on full tanks.

Getting ahead of Rosberg at the start is obviously key to Verstappen’s victory hopes as Red Bull have split the strategies between their drivers. Verstappen is using the super-softs at the start of the race and while the forecast drop in air temperature expected tomorrow may help Verstappen a little, but his first pit stop is still likely to come early.

Meanwhile Daniel Ricciardo will start on the soft tyres which should prove better suited to a race stint and presents him with the option of avoiding the super-soft tyre entirely – as Rosberg and the Ferrari pair may also do. But Ricciardo’s problem is that instead of lining up directly behind Verstappen he has Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel between him and his team mate.

Between the red cars and the Red Bulls Rosberg potentially has a fight on his hands, especially if he doesn’t get a great start again. But what progress might his team mate make from his lowly grid position?

The stock of power unit components Hamilton has controversially built by changing them at every opportunity this weekend means he no longer need worry about making one unit last four races. He should therefore be able to access the higher levels of its performance more often. He will also be able to start on fresh tyres and has the option to start from the pit lane.

In China he paid a price for starting at the back of the field, which may tempt him to consider a pit lane start. That would cost him time and places, but with Safety Car period not too common at Spa it could be worth considering.

Go ad-free for just £1 per month

>> Find out more and sign up

Qualifying times in full

DriverCarQ1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1Nico RosbergMercedes1’48.0191’46.999 (-1.020)1’46.744 (-0.255)
2Max VerstappenRed Bull1’48.4071’47.163 (-1.244)1’46.893 (-0.270)
3Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1’47.9121’47.664 (-0.248)1’46.910 (-0.754)
4Sebastian VettelFerrari1’47.8021’47.944 (+0.142)1’47.108 (-0.836)
5Daniel RicciardoRed Bull1’48.4071’48.027 (-0.380)1’47.216 (-0.811)
6Sergio PerezForce India1’48.1061’47.485 (-0.621)1’47.407 (-0.078)
7Nico HulkenbergForce India1’48.0801’47.317 (-0.763)1’47.543 (+0.226)
8Valtteri BottasWilliams1’48.6551’47.918 (-0.737)1’47.612 (-0.306)
9Jenson ButtonMcLaren1’48.7001’48.051 (-0.649)1’48.114 (+0.063)
10Felipe MassaWilliams1’47.7381’47.667 (-0.071)1’48.263 (+0.596)
11Romain GrosjeanHaas1’48.7511’48.316 (-0.435)
12Kevin MagnussenRenault1’48.8001’48.485 (-0.315)
13Esteban GutierrezHaas1’48.7481’48.598 (-0.150)
14Jolyon PalmerRenault1’48.9011’48.888 (-0.013)
15Carlos Sainz JnrToro Rosso1’48.8761’49.038 (+0.162)
16Pascal WehrleinManor1’48.5541’49.320 (+0.766)
17Felipe NasrSauber1’48.949
18Esteban OconManor1’49.050
19Daniil KvyatToro Rosso1’49.058
20Marcus EricssonSauber1’49.071
21Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’50.033
22Fernando AlonsoMcLaren

Sector times

DriverSector 1Sector 2Sector 3
Nico Rosberg30.240 (1)47.824 (5)28.680 (1)
Max Verstappen30.471 (8)47.560 (1)28.775 (5)
Kimi Raikkonen30.316 (3)47.661 (2)28.722 (2)
Sebastian Vettel30.284 (2)47.815 (4)28.914 (8)
Daniel Ricciardo30.695 (12)47.703 (3)28.818 (6)
Sergio Perez30.403 (4)47.957 (6)28.746 (3)
Nico Hulkenberg30.409 (5)48.076 (8)28.749 (4)
Valtteri Bottas30.464 (7)48.203 (10)28.930 (9)
Jenson Button30.860 (18)48.040 (7)29.151 (15)
Felipe Massa30.418 (6)48.155 (9)28.867 (7)
Romain Grosjean30.718 (13)48.452 (11)29.146 (14)
Kevin Magnussen30.867 (20)48.487 (12)29.069 (12)
Esteban Gutierrez30.518 (9)48.751 (15)29.059 (11)
Jolyon Palmer30.862 (19)48.587 (13)29.258 (18)
Carlos Sainz Jnr30.820 (17)48.729 (14)29.206 (17)
Pascal Wehrlein30.548 (10)48.980 (19)28.975 (10)
Felipe Nasr30.804 (16)48.783 (16)29.151 (15)
Esteban Ocon30.624 (11)49.284 (20)29.142 (13)
Daniil Kvyat30.761 (14)48.867 (17)29.377 (21)
Marcus Ericsson30.767 (15)48.871 (18)29.351 (20)
Lewis Hamilton31.054 (21)49.656 (21)29.323 (19)
Fernando Alonso

Speed trap

PosDriverCarEngineSpeed (kph/mph)Gap
1Nico RosbergMercedesMercedes319.8 (198.7)
2Felipe MassaWilliamsMercedes318.3 (197.8)-1.5
3Valtteri BottasWilliamsMercedes317.9 (197.5)-1.9
4Sebastian VettelFerrariFerrari317.9 (197.5)-1.9
5Esteban OconManorMercedes317.7 (197.4)-2.1
6Kimi RaikkonenFerrariFerrari317.3 (197.2)-2.5
7Nico HulkenbergForce IndiaMercedes316.5 (196.7)-3.3
8Daniel RicciardoRed BullTAG Heuer316.4 (196.6)-3.4
9Lewis HamiltonMercedesMercedes316.3 (196.5)-3.5
10Sergio PerezForce IndiaMercedes316.0 (196.4)-3.8
11Pascal WehrleinManorMercedes315.9 (196.3)-3.9
12Max VerstappenRed BullTAG Heuer315.1 (195.8)-4.7
13Felipe NasrSauberFerrari314.5 (195.4)-5.3
14Marcus EricssonSauberFerrari314.1 (195.2)-5.7
15Esteban GutierrezHaasFerrari313.6 (194.9)-6.2
16Daniil KvyatToro RossoFerrari312.9 (194.4)-6.9
17Kevin MagnussenRenaultRenault312.5 (194.2)-7.3
18Carlos Sainz JnrToro RossoFerrari312.3 (194.1)-7.5
19Romain GrosjeanHaasFerrari311.7 (193.7)-8.1
20Jolyon PalmerRenaultRenault311.5 (193.6)-8.3
21Jenson ButtonMcLarenHonda309.7 (192.4)-10.1
22Fernando AlonsoMcLarenHonda194.8 (121.0)-125.0

Over to you

Will Ferrari or Red Bull be the biggest threat to Mercedes in the race? Can Rosberg secure a vital victory for his championship hopes?

Share your views on the Belgian Grand Prix in the comments.

2016 Belgian Grand Prix

Browse all 2016 Belgian Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

Got a potential story, tip or enquiry? Find out more about RaceFans and contact us here.

26 comments on “Red Bull’s split strategy strengthens their chances against Rosberg”

  1. Jean-Christophe
    27th August 2016, 20:38

    @Keith Collentine I think you meant but with Safety Car period not too “uncommon” at Spa it could be worth considering

  2. It makes me really happy that we don’t even have to think about the 107% time any more. That’s a good sign for the health of the competition I think.

    1. Man I do miss the HRT days… Narain, Vitantonio, Pedro, Karun…

  3. I’m in Stavelot at the moment and there’s an impressive electrical storm going on – no rain yet but it’s coming. :-D

    1. Hope so, today the track off-line looked a lot dustier than i’ve seen it before, so hopefully it’ll wash it away so we can get some racing tomorow :]

      1. It rained a little at 11pm – forecast has changed now for rain tomorrow and staying dry today.

  4. Now if sector 2 is called the ‘chassis sector’, the ferrari chassis doesn’t look that bad, or does it?

    1. I wouldn’t necessarily call it that. If they have chosen to run more wing on their cars (which can in some way be confirmed by the speed trap numbers) they’ll have more chances of being quicker in sector 2, which has a lot of fast corners.

    2. Indeed, they are great at it it seems… But Mercedes is faster on overtaking parts of the track….. We shall see. I hope no rain for first 30 minutes.. Then light shower not to trigger red flags..

  5. Rain please.

    1. Sun is in the forecast it looks like

  6. Arnoud van Houwelingen
    27th August 2016, 22:30

    Wow the SS really don’t work this weekend for Mercedes .. Rosberg only 0,255 sec faster with SS in Q3 compared to S in Q2

    1. he didn’t have to go any faster than that :) I am sure he could have hit a 46.2 if he wanted to. But he didn’t need to, he just ‘managed’ the gap to the next guy.

      1. Nonsense! Mercedes is known to have had problems switching on the SS tyres. It makes no sense that Rosberg wouldn’t do everything he could to make sure of pole, especially since it’s likely he won’t need any SS tyres for the race.

        Can’t wait for the race – on paper it promises to be one of the most interesting since the hybrid era began.

        1. It makes no sense for Rosberg to be pushing the car an extralap when he is already first. Noone does that.

    2. sunny stivala
      28th August 2016, 8:42

      interesting what Villadelprat commented/was saying about FERRARI having used SS in Q2 for part of a lap to heat the rubber and so harden it for use during the race.

  7. Typical pattern at SPA. In 08 the whole field was within 1.5. A flowing track, takes chassis superiority below power/drag and good braking. I also wanted to say that I believe the increase in psi is apparantly aiding racing but it’s hard to police and silly to enforce, which is devastating for purity. Finally RB’s strategy backfired after Ricciardo failed to at least ensure he would be starting the next row behind Rosberg. Anyhow contrary to popular belief, regardless of whether Max jumps Nico or not, he’ll pit early undercut anyone for 1st on the road and won’t probably have to deal with traffic either. The other top teams probably chose the soft in order to ensure a shift for the Medium could do them the race, some though only have one set of medium, which may not be enough, anyhow track position is quite important, so Max’s team tactic most surely flopped but I think everyone is wrong to say Max went for the wrong tyre.

  8. Absolutely praying for cooler conditions or a nice thunderstorm for the race, and Max’s, sake.

    1. Those super softs are going to fry pronto…..Max showing his inexperience.

      1. Then his engineer and team should have told him it won’t work.

      2. So he missed F3 and still he qualified 2nd on the grid.
        Not too bad for an inexperienced boy.
        Together with his engineering team he opted for a different strategy.
        It was not the decision by a spoilt brat, but a deliberated one by his team.
        Strategic thinking is all about induction, deduction and reduction.
        So the team did their homework and decided a different strategy might pay off.
        Being different is always a risk, but that’s what I like about Max.
        When he had chosen the same strategy as his team mate, he would have mitigated any backfire after the race by pundits, haters and lovers.
        After the race in hindsight you can argue what the best strategy was.
        Inexperienced fortune tellers are not able to predict how a race will evolve, I’m one of them.
        So my compliments to you that you already know what will happen this afternoon.
        Still I’m looking forward to the race and if Max has got it wrong, next time better.
        What I like about Max that he’s not suffering from the lemming syndrome.
        Lemmings never made the difference in politics, sports and arts.

      3. uhm…it was a descision made by Max AND his engineers………..

    2. At least he’ll give the Dutch fans a good couple of laps ahead of Rosberg.

  9. It seems like nobody is expecting Hamilton have to serve any penalties….Don’t we have any rule regarding unused grid- penalties?
    5 places= 5 sec
    6-10 places= 10 sec
    More than 10= drive trough
    What am I missing?

    1. Your missing the fact that the rule was removed last year – when Honda AND Red Bull Renault needed to do what LH has done….

  10. How come they do not even reach 320 km/h in the speed traps? Is the speed trap in the Eau Rouge or in the braking zone?

Comments are closed.